基于空间马尔科夫链的农村经济发展水平分析——以四川省为例

ANALYSIS OF EVOLVEMENT LEVEL OF RURAL ECONOMY BASED ON SPATIAL MARKOV CHAINS——TAKING SICHUAN PROVINCE FOR EXAMPLE

关键词:  经济水平 趋同 空间马尔科夫链 时空演变 四川

Key words:  economic level  regional convergence  space Markov chain  temporal and spatial change  Sichuan province

摘要:

以2000～2013年四川省各地市（州）农民人均纯收入和人均生活消费支出表征农村经济发展水平，通过传统马尔科夫链和空间马尔科夫链方法，分别构建农村经济发展水平的非空间和空间马尔科夫转移概率矩阵，对研究时段的农村经济发展水平的时空格局演变特征进行分析与预测。研究结果表明：（1）各地区农民人均收入水平和消费水平均沿着其最初类型稳步演进，农村经济发展水平存在着“俱乐部趋同”现象。（2）地区间的农村经济发展水平变化受到所邻地区的影响，其在空间上的趋同过程不独立。（3）农村经济发展水平相互作用呈现出显著的空间分异，较发达的川南地区发生向下转移，不发达或欠发达的川西地区则发生向上转移，四川省各地区农村经济发展水平差异将进一步缩小。（4）地区类型转移受周围地区的影响，表现为农民消费水平的空间趋同变化明显于收入水平的空间趋同变化。

Abstract:

Improving farmers′ income is the core to solve the issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers.This paper assessed the development level of rural economy with the use of per capita net income and per capita annual living expenditures of rural residents in 21cities of Sichuan in 2000-2013.By using the traditional Markov chain and space Markov chain method, it analyzed the characteristics of spatial and temporal evolution pattern for the development level of rural economy.The results showed that:(1)the per capita net income and per capita annual living expenditures of rural residents evolved steadily.And the change of regional development level of rural economy showed the phenomenon of "club convergence"; (2)the variation of regional development level of rural economy was affected by the development level of rural economy in adjacent regions; (3) the regional development level of rural economy presented an obvious spatial differentiation.(4)due to the impact of their surrounding areas, the annual living expenditures of rural residents was more obviousthan per capita net income of rural residents.