新疆畜牧养殖经济效益与碳排放脱钩关系的实证研究

ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND ITS DECOUPLING RELATIONSHIP WITH CARBON EMISSIONS IN XINJIANG

关键词:  碳排放 时空差异 Tapio脱钩模型 低碳经济 畜牧养殖经济效益 新疆

Key words:  carbon emissions  spatial and temporal differences  Tapio decoupling model  low carbon economy  economic benefits of animal husbandry  Xinjiang

摘要:

党的十八大提出“把推动发展的立足点转到提高质量和效益上来”。新疆作为我国五大牧区之一，研究畜牧养殖业发展质量效益，对第一产业的健康可持续发展有重要的现实意义。畜牧养殖经济效益与碳排放动态关系的研究作为检验畜牧养殖业发展质量效益的前提和重点。因此，笔者根据1997年以来新疆畜牧业增加值作为衡量经济效益指标，根据9类反刍动物肠道发酵和粪便排放所产生的温室气体作为衡量碳排放指标，并利用Tapio脱钩模型，探讨新疆畜牧养殖经济效益与碳排放的脱钩情况，并对其脱钩状态进行分析。结果表明：（1）新疆畜牧养殖碳排放量由1997年的64971万t增加到2014年的74733万t，增幅1503%，年均增长083%，呈现“持续上升-快速下降-缓慢上升”3阶段特征。碳排放量和碳排放结构空间差异明显； （2）新疆畜牧养殖经济效益与碳排放呈现“弱脱钩平稳-扩张负脱钩与强负脱钩交替-强脱钩转型”的演进关系，以弱脱钩、强脱钩为主。据此，提出相应建议。

Abstract:

The Eighteenth Party Congress proposed to transform the development to the improvement of quality and efficiency. Xinjiang as one of China′s five major pastoral areas, the quality and efficiency of animal husbandry and aquaculture has important practical significance for the healthy and sustainable development of the first industry. The dynamic relationship between economic benefit and carbon emission of animal husbandry is the premise and key to check the quality and efficiency of animal breeding industry. Taking the increase of the animal husbandry of Xinjiang since 1997 as an economic indicator, and 9 kinds of ruminant animal enteric fermentation and manure emissions as a measure of carbon emission index, this paper discussed the decoupling situation between economic benefits and carbon emissions of Xinjiang animal husbandry using the Tapio model. The results showed that: (1) Xinjiang animal husbandry carbon emissions were from 649.71×104t in 1997 to 747.33 ×104t in 2014, with an increase of 15.03%, the average annual growth was 0.83%, and showed rising - falling fast - slow rise features. The space difference of carbon emissions and structure was obvious; (2) The relationship between economic benefits and carbon emissions showed the features that a weak decoupling was stable, expansive negative decoupling alternated with strong negative decoupling, and strong decoupling was transformed. Accordingly, the paper put forward the countermeasures and suggestions for improving the quality and efficiency of the development of animal husbandry, such as strengthening the system construction and management of pollution of livestock and poultry manure, accelerating livestock antifouling technology introduction and application.