泸州市发展空间格局变化驱动力分析

THE DRIVING FORCES OF SPATIAL PATTERNS CHANGE IN LUZHOU

关键词:  空间格局 变化驱动力 logisitc模型 城镇发展

Key words:  spatial pattern  driving forces  logistic model  urban growth

摘要:

［目的］空间格局既是社会经济发展的支撑，也是区域的自然条件、区位条件的影响产物。研究以地理国情监测数据为基础，分析空间格局的形成因素以及与社会经济发展之间的相互作用。研究提取泸州市的城市发展空间格局，构建空间格局影响因素集，包括中心城镇影响、道路影响、河流影响等。［方法］该研究采用空间非线性方程，识别驱动力的空间异质性，并模拟范围内不同子区域的状态转换差异。建立协方差矩阵，找出与空间格局变化具有相关性的影响因素，识别影响因素对空间格局的影响力大小。［结果］分析发现， 2010~2013年间泸州市交通轴线沿线经济社会总量和增长速度的变化较快，泸州市依托轴带发展模式推进经济社会发展的规划已初见成效，沿长江经济带及沿川黔高速公路发展带均已形成并开始对沿线经济社会发展起到积极的带动作用。同时随着泸州市城市总体规划和成渝经济区规划的实施，沿长江经济带即横向发展带对经济社会发展的带动作用将更加显著，并且将在泸州市未来发展中发挥重要作用。［结论］研究结果表明，建立空间格局的空间要素吸引力方程可以准确地表达不同的空间要素对空间格局形成的作用力大小、作用力方向，可以更好地为空间规划地制定提供参考。

Abstract:

Spatial patternis the support of the social and economic development, which can be effected by natural and location conditions. Based on the database of national geographical condition monitoring, this paper analyzed the forming factors of spatial pattern and the interactive role of social economy, established the database of the impacting factors, identified the spatial heterogeneity by adopting the spatial nonlinear equation, and found out the factors influencing the spatial pattern changes by using the covariance matrix. The results showed that the growth rate of total economic and social output along the traffic axis changed fast from 2010 to 2013. Luzhou city had achieved a great economic and social development by relying on the planning of traffic axis development model, and also promoted the economic and social development along the Yangtze River economic belt and the Sichuan and Guizhou expressway development zone. With the implementation of the overall urban planning of Luzhou and Chengdu and Chongqing economic zone, the horizontal development belt had played a leading role in China′s economic and social development. It concluded that the identification equationof patterns and factors can accurately express the strength and direction of influencing forces, and provide a reference for the spatial planning.