新疆农业资金投入与农民收入效应关系的实证研究

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT AND FARMERS′ INCOME EFFECT IN XINJIANG

关键词:  财政支农 农业贷款 农民自主投资 农民收入 协整检验

Key words:  agricultural financial expenditure  agricultural credit  farmers′ independent investment  Xinjiang farmers′ income  co-integration test  error correction model

摘要:

［目的］为清晰识别农业资金投入对新疆农民收入的影响程度，并给予地方政府进一步优化调整农业资金使用效能提供参考依据。［方法］文章选取1978~2013年新疆统计数据，采用协整分析、误差修正模型等方法对财政支农、农业贷款、农民自主投资与新疆农民人均纯收入进行了实证探究。［结果］新疆地区财政支农、农业信贷、农民自主投资与农民人均纯收入之间存在长期均衡关系；而短期内财政支农、农业信贷以及农户自主投资的促进效应不如长期明显，其中农业贷款的收入效应远低于财政支农和农民自主投资；财政支农、农民自主投资与农民人均纯收入在短期内具有格兰杰因果关系，长期则格兰杰因果关系解释力逐渐减弱，而农业贷款在短期内不是新疆农民人均纯收入增长的格兰杰原因，长期则互为格兰杰因果关系。［结论］该文提出加大财政支农投入力度，提高财政资金配置效率；推动农村金融改革，提高农村金融效率；提振农民自主积累资金投资的积极性等政策含义，以期为新疆“三农问题”有效解决提供坚实可靠的资本基础。

Abstract:

In order to clearly identify the impact of agricultural capital investment on the Xinjiang farmers′ income and provide a basis for the government to further optimize the efficiency of financial support for agriculture, according to Xinjiang statistics data from the year 1978 to 2013, this paper analyzed the long-term and short-term dynamic relationship among agricultural financial expenditure, agricultural credit, farmers′ independent investment and the per capita net income of farmers, using the time-series analysis methods such as co-integration test, error correction model and Granger causality test. The results showed that there was a long-term equilibrium relationship among agricultural financial expenditure, agricultural credit, farmers′ independent investment and the per capital net income of farmers. In the short term, Xinjiang agricultural financial expenditure, agricultural credit and farmers′ independent investment had great roles in promoting the per capita net income of farmers. The relationship among them showed the Granger causality for the short term, which was weak for the long term. Granger causes existed between the agricultural credit and the growth of the per capita net income of farmers in long term but not in short term. Accordingly, the article put forward some policy implications, such as further increasing financial support for agriculture investment and improving the financial capital allocation efficiency, promoting rural financial reform and improving the efficiency of rural finance, and boosting the enthusiasm of farmers self accumulation of capital investment, so as to provide a solid capital foundation for effectively solving Xinjiang "three rural problems".