农村劳动力流动与三次产业结构调整的内生性研究

THE ENDOGENOUS NATURE OF THE RURAL LABOR FORCE FLOW AND THE ADJUSTMENT OF THE THREE INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE

关键词:  农村劳动力流动 产业结构调整 内生性 面板数据 GMM

Key words:  rural labor flow  industry structure adjustment  endogenous  panel data  GMM

摘要:

［目的］劳动力是经济发展的重要元素之一，大量农村劳动力流动制约着社会经济的发展。自1978年改革开放以来，我国三次产业结构均进行着调整，而随着农业现代化的发展，导致大量农村劳动力外流，而这种外流受三次产业结构调整的影响，因此农村劳动力流动与三次产业结构调整存在很大的关联。［方法］为了探寻二者之间的关系，文章利用1978～2014年面板数据，通过GMM三阶段分析法将农村流动劳动力流入各产业的比重变化，与三次产业结构比的变化进行描述性的对比分析，并建立联立方程及模型。［结果］研究表明：大量农村劳动力脱离土地，从第一产业流向第二、三产业； 在我国进行产业结构优化升级和社会不断发展的过程中，第二、三产业吸纳了大量的农村剩余劳动力，形成了劳动力的流动； 农村劳动力流动与三次产业结构调整存在相互影响相互作用的内生性关系。［结论］并针对这一结论提出相应的政策建议，对更好的引导农村流动劳动力和产业结构调整优化具有重要的理论和实践意义。

Abstract:

With the deepening of China′s industrialization，the adjustment of industrial structure is often accompanied by rural labor flow in the three industries. In order to explore the relationship between the industrial structure and rural labor flow, this paper comparatively analyzed the change of the proportion of rural labor into various industries and the change of the ratio of the three industrial structures, and then established the equations and models by GMM three-stage analysis based on 2014 panel data. The results showed that a large number of rural labor force transferred from the first industry to the second and third industry. During the process of optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure and social development, the second and third industry absorbed a large number of rural surplus labor force, and formed the labor flow. The relationships between rural labor flow and three industrial structure adjustment showed mutual influence and endogenous interaction. Finally，it put forward some corresponding policy suggestions. The results can provide a reference for better guiding the rural labor force flow and industrial structure adjustment and optimization.