西北干旱区农地利用碳排放与农业经济增长的响应关系

RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN AGRICULTURAL LAND CARBON EMISSION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN THE ARID REGION OF NORTHWEST CHINA

关键词:  西北干旱区 农地利用 碳排放 脱钩理论 LMDI模型

Key words:  the arid region of northwest China  agricultural land use  carbon emission  decoupling theory  LMDI model

摘要:

［目的］试图找出我国西北干旱区农地利用碳排放与农业经济增长之间的关系，以期为制定该地区农地利用碳减排政策提供理论支撑。［方法］测算西北干旱区“九五”至“十二五”期间农地利用的碳排放量，采用“Tapio脱钩”理论探究农地利用碳排放与农业经济增长的响应关系，并运用LMDI模型分析了农地利用碳排放的影响因素，继而对农地利用碳排放零增长的时间节点进行了预测。［结果］西北干旱区农地碳排放呈现“快速增长-缓慢增长”两阶段变化特征，其碳排放强度变化轨迹与此基本一致； 农地利用碳排放与农业经济增长间响应关系显著，以弱脱钩效应为主； 农地利用碳排放的驱动因子中，农业生产效率因素、劳动力因素对农地利用碳减排的成效最为明显，农业产业结构因素对农地利用碳减排略有促进作用，而农业经济发展因素是促进碳排放的主要因素。［结论］西北干旱区有望在2017年实现农地利用碳排放的零增长，虽在短期内可能实现农地利用碳排放的零增长，但农业收入在农户家庭收入中仍占较大比重，农业碳减排压力依然较大。

Abstract:

［Purpose］In order to provide theoretical basis for making agricultural land carbon reduction policies, this paper tried to find out the relationship between agricultural land carbon emissions and economic development in the arid region of northwest China.［Method］ This paper calculated the agricultural land carbon emission in the arid region of northwest Chin from the 9th five-year plan to the 12th five-year plan, and then analyzed the relationship between carbon emission and economic development applying Tapio Decoupling theory, and ananlyzed the influence factors of agricultural land carbon emission using the LMDI model.Finally, it predicted the time for zero growth of the agricultural land carbon emission. ［Result］ The agricultural land carbon emission as well as it's intensity in the arid region of northwest China both presented a two-stage-characteristic feature, namely "faster growth-slower growth". The relationship between agricultural land carbon emission and economic development was strong, mainly dominated by "weak decoupling". All the driving factors of agricultural land carbon emission, the agricultural production effciency and the agricultural labor force were proved to be the most effective and efficient factors to reduce carbon emission.The agricultural atructural factors had a relatively small effect on decreasing carbon emission,while agricultural economic development was the main driving factor to increase carbon emission.［Conclusion］ The forecasted results showed that zero growth of the agricultural land carbon emission could be realized in 2017.There is still great pressure in agricultural land carbon reduction because the agriculture income accounted for a big proportion of the family income, although it might be achieve a zero carbon emission growth in a short time.