基于籽棉交易价格分析的新疆棉花目标价格试点工作改进研究

STUDY ON THE IMPROVEMENT OF COTTON PRICE TARGET PILOT WORK BASED ON ANALYSIS OF SEED COTTON PRICE

关键词:  目标价格改革试点工作 籽棉交易价格 分位数回归

Key words:  cotton price  price target pilot work  quantile regression

摘要:

［目的］已有研究对目标价格政策的分析具有较强的启发意义，但对籽棉交易价格方面的研究较少。文章通过实证数据分析影响籽棉交易价格的相关因素，试图找到植棉农户交易风险的重要变量。［方法］分区间统计新疆28个县市1140份交易数据，使用分位数回归模型对整个数据样本进行解析，并采用bootstrap方法对籽棉交易价格进行分位数回归，进一步解释各因素对籽棉交易价格的影响。［结果］（1）随着分位点的提高，籽棉交易数量对籽棉交易价格的影响程度呈现出先下降后上升的“U型”趋势，交易规模扩大对籽棉交易价格提升的作用较为明显； （2）在07分位点以前，有中介对籽棉交易价格的影响程度较为稳定； （3）随着分位点的提高，南疆对籽棉交易价格的影响程度越来越大； （4）在低分位点籽棉交易等级对籽棉交易价格的影响具有不确定性； （5）随着籽棉交易的进行，籽棉交易价格与籽棉交易时间呈现出显著的负相关关系。［结论］籽棉交易价格会因各种因素影响而发生变化，其中单个农户籽棉交易数量的提高会有利于单笔籽棉交易价格的提高，交易时间与籽棉交易价格具有明显负向关系； 南北疆籽棉交易价格因地域不同而出现差别； 棉花交易等级对籽棉交易价格形成具有显著影响，但同一长度不同等级籽棉交易价格基本一致； 不同棉花交易主体对籽棉交易价格的形成具有较大影响。

Abstract:

The target price pilot work in Xinjiang was first implemented in 2014. The seed cotton trading price is the main variables which influenced the effect of policy implementation. Based on the 1140 trade data of 28 counties and cities in Xinjiang, this paper establisheda quantile regression model for detailed analysis. The results showed that the cotton trading volume benefitedfrom the rise of the seed cotton price. With the continuous seed cotton trading, the price showed a clear downward trend and a difference between north and south in Xinjiang because of different regions, which was higher in south than that in north.Different cotton trading agent hadgreat influence on the formation of cotton trading price.The main trade body for the cotton were producers and brokers.Seed cotton trading in the main scale and standardization will be conducive to thestability of the transaction price of cotton. Finally, it put forward the improvement suggestions for the current target price policy,mainly including:from the point of view of transaction time, reasonably determining the price period according to the actual situation of cotton trading, ensuring the most seed transactions occurred in mining price period, improving the cotton trading scale and price, improving the degree of organization of cotton production, establishing the subsidy mechanism of the cotton grade, and constructinga complete policy subsidy system.