我国天然橡胶种植户生产行为的影响因素分析——基于橡胶价格持续低迷的背景

ANALYSIS OF FACTORS INFLUENCING GROWERS′ ACT IN PRODUCTION OF NATURAL RUBBER IN CHINA——BASED ON THE BACKGROUND OF LOW PRICE

关键词:  天然橡胶 生产行为 价格 影响因素 多元Logit模型

Key words:  natural rubber  the act of production  price  influence factors  multinomial logit model

摘要:

［目的］通过分析在天然橡胶价格持续低迷背景下种植户的生产行为，从农户及家庭特征、生产特征、市场因素和政策因素4个方面选取16项指标，研究影响天然橡胶种植户生产行为的因素。［方法］选取2015年在天然橡胶主植区云南、海南的农户调研数据，运用多元Logit模型分析天然橡胶种植户生产行为改变的影响因素。［结果］种植户生产行为选择降低和提高割胶频率是种植户权衡各类因素追求利益最大化而产生的不同行为模式，其中橡胶收入占比、种植年限、投入肥料变化、雇工割胶、生产成本、后期价格态度、补贴满意度、收益满意度8项因素对种植户选择降低割胶频率具有显著影响； 受教育子女数量、种植规模、雇工割胶、是否享受补贴4项因素对种植户选择提高割胶频率具有显著影响。［结论］天然橡胶种植户的生产行为受多种因素共同作用，并且天然橡胶价格持续低迷破坏了天然橡胶产业的可持续发展。

Abstract:

By analyzing the production behavior of growers under the background of the low price of natural rubber,16 indicators were selected from four aspects: family characteristics, production characteristics, market factors and policy factors, and the factors of the production behavior of natural rubber growers were analyzed. Based on the statistical analysis of data in 2015 and the household survey data in the main planting area of Yunnan, Hainan,the Multivariate Logit model was used to analyze the influencing factors of natural rubber farmers production behaviors. The results showed that the reduction and increase of rubber tapping frequency were two different behavior patterns pursuing maximized benefits. There were 8 factors which had significant influence on growers′ decision to reduce rubber tapping frequency, i.e. rubber income share, planting age, changes of invested fertilizer, hired labor for rubber tapping, production cost, later price attitude, subsidy satisfaction and income satisfaction; while there were also 4 factors influencing their decision to increase rubber tapping frequency, i.e. number of children received education, planting scale, hired labor for rubber tapping and subsidy or not. It concluded that the production behavior of natural rubber farmers can be affected by various factors, and the natural rubber industry sustainable development can be destroyed due to natural rubber prices decline.