博罗县耕地变化及其影响因素分析

ANALYSIS OF CULTIVATED LAND CHANGE AND ITS INFLUENCING FACTORS IN BOLUO COUNTY

关键词:  耕地变化 经济发展 主成分分析 灰色关联度 博罗县

Key words:  cultivated land change  economic development  principal component analysis  the grey correlation degree  Boluo county

摘要:

［目的］试图探讨广东省博罗县耕地时空动态变化与社会经济发展之间的关联度，分析其社会经济发展与当地耕地时空动态变化之间的相关性特点。［方法］基于2005～2014年广东省博罗县耕地资源数据及其相关社会经济资料选取19个指标建立评价指标体系，借助SPSS软件找出社会经济变化的主要驱动因子，并借助DPS软件进行灰色关联分析，得到该地区社会经济发展与耕地面积变化之间的相关性关系，从而量化不同因素对于耕地数量变化的影响程度。［结果］影响耕地变化最大的经济因素为地方财政收入，其关联度高达0.994； 城市化水平与耕地面积之间相关性很高，其关联度为0.991； 地区生产总值（GDP）与耕地数量变化之间相关性较高，其关联度为0.830。［结论］2005～2014年博罗县耕地数量波动相对较大总体呈现略微增加趋势，人均耕地呈现下降趋势，且经济发展与耕地数量变化关系较密切。

Abstract:

With the accelerating of social economy, urbanization, and industrialization process, the construction land is inevitable to take up cultivated land, which causes a loss of high quality cultivated land. Based on the cultivated land resources, social and economic data in Huizhou from 2005 to 2014, this paper established an evaluation system which included 19 indicators, and analyzed the dynamic change of cultivated land resources and the driving factors. The results showed that the area of cultivated land reduced from 2005 to 2009, but increased slightly from 2009 to 2014. The economic factors, such as the government financial income greatly caused the change of cultivated land. The correlation between urbanization level and cultivated land was relatively high with a value of 0.991, using the method of grey correlation analysis. The regional GDP also had high correlation with the change of cultivated lands with a value of 0.830. Finally, it put forward social and economic countermeasures to protect cultivated land in Boluo county.