四川省农业区域经济差异对农业经济增长的影响研究

THE INFLUENCE OF AGRICULTURAL REGIONAL ECONOMIC DIFFERENCE ON AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SICHUAN PROVINCE

关键词:  区域经济差异 农业经济增长 影响因素 灰色关联分析 四川

Key words:  regional economic difference  agricultural economic growth  influence factor  grey relational analysis  Sichuan

摘要:

［目的］通过分析四川省农业区域经济差异，将四川省划分为西北高原区、西南山地区、四川盆地区等3个农业经济差异区域，并从土地资源、水资源、经济资源、社会资源等4个方面确定11个指标研究其对四川农业经济增长的影响。［方法］运用灰色关联分析法，选取2010～2014年3个不同区域内11个指标，分别分析其对农业经济发展的核心评价指标农业GDP的影响。［结果］3个区域内耕地面积、受灾面积、农业用水总量与农业GDP均中度相关，并且从关联度的结果看，耕地面积、受灾面积、农业用水总量的差异对农业GDP的影响差距不大； 3个区域内农林牧副渔总产值、农业总产值、农业增加值均与农业GDP高度相关，且对各区农业GDP的影响的差异较小； 3个区域内有效灌溉面积、农业机械总动力、农用化肥使用量、农业从业人员、农业固定资产投资对农业GDP的影响显著。［结论］四川农业区域经济差异对农业经济增长的影响显著。

Abstract:

This paper analyzed the regional economic disparities and the present situation of agricultural economic growth in Sichuan province, established the index system of agricultural economic differences among the three regions, i.e., Northwest Plateau, Southwest Mountain and Sichuan Basin of Sichuan Province, which included four aspects, i.e., the land resources, water resources, economic resources, and social resources, and 11 indicators. And then, it assessed the influence of agricultural economic growth during 2010-2014 by using gray correlation analysis. The results showed that agricultural regional differences had obvious effects on agricultural economic growth. So it suggested increasing the value of agricultural production and value according to local conditions, improving the level of agricultural mechanization and the effective irrigated area, rationally allocating investment in agricultural fixed assets, agricultural infrastructure, and water conservancy projects, and protecting arable lands.