西藏农牧民人均纯收入的影响因素分析

QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCE FACTORS OF FARMERS AND HERDSMEN IN TIBET

关键词:  西藏 农牧民人均纯收入 影响因素 量化分析 对策建议

Key words:  Tibet  farmers and herdsmen  the per capita net income  influencing factors  quantitative analysis  countermeasures and suggestions

摘要:

［目的］近年来，随着西藏经济快速、稳定、持续的发展。西藏农牧民生活水平有了显著的提高，对农牧民收入问题的研究成为了社会的热点问题。但是，对西藏农牧民收入问题的研究多以定性为主，文章力求从量化分析的角度对西藏农牧民收入问题进行研究。［方法］为了对西藏农牧民收入进行定量研究，该文就西藏农牧民收入现状进行了全面的调查和分析，在调查、分析的基础上选择具有代表性的农牧民人均纯收入、一产产值、二产产值、三产产值和农牧民人口数5个因素1998~2013年之间的时间序列数据进行研究，以西藏农牧民人均纯收入作为被解释变量，分别以一产产值、二产产值、三产产值和农牧民人口数作为解释变量，通过逐步回归的方法建立计量经济模型，消除共线性带来的影响。而后对模型进行检验、修正，对修正后的模型进行进一步的检验，模型通过了t检验，F检验，Dubin Watson经验，拟合优度较高。［结果］结合当下西藏经济发展的现状得出农牧民收入与各解释变量之间的计量经济模型，并对模型进行实证分析，得出影响西藏农牧民增收的关键因素。［结论］通过分析可得，第二产业和第三产业的发展对西藏农牧民增收的作用较为显著，对第二产业和第三产业做进一步的分析，可以发现第二产业的推动作用尤为明显。第三产业产值每提高1%，西藏农牧民人均纯收入将提高5.643362%，第二产业产值每提高1%，西藏农牧民人均纯收入将提高10.8155%。回归结果与当下西藏经济发展现状及农牧民收入实际状况较为吻合。通过实证分析，并结合当下西藏经济发展状况，在该文最后对提高西藏农牧民人均纯收入提出相关的对策建议。

Abstract:

With the rapid and sustainable development of Tibet economy, farmers and herdsmen′s living standard in Tibet has been improved significantly. The income source of farmers and herdsmen has become a hot issue in China. However, the research on the income of farmers and herdsmen in Tibet was still deficiency. This paper quantitatively analyzed the income status of farmers and herdsmen in Tibet, on the basis of investigation and analysis of farmers and herdsmen per capita net income, the per capita net income of the representative farmers and herdsmen, the output value of primary, second, and tertiary industry, and farmers and herdsmen population from 1998 to 2013. It established an econometric model by regression method combining these variables, and tested and revised the model until going through the t test, F test, and Dubin-Watson experience. The results showed that the development of the second and third industry of Tibet had significant effects on the income of herdsmen, especially the second industry. When the third industry value increased 1%, the per capita net income of farmers and herdsmen in Tibet would increase 5.6%. When the second industry value increased 1%, the per capita net income would increase by 10.8%. The regression results were in good agreement with the current situation of economic development in Tibet and the actual situation of farmers and herdsmen. Finally, it put forward some countermeasures and suggestions combined with the current situation of economic development in Tibet.