云南省粮食主产区产量差异时间序列分析

TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF YIELD DIFFERENCE IN MAIN GRAIN PRODUCING AREAS OF YUNNAN PROVINCE

关键词:  粮食产量 粮食主产区 粮食安全 时间序列 云南

Key words:  grain yield  main grain producing areas  food security  time series  Yunnan

摘要:

［目的］通过对比及分析云南省四大粮食主产区2006~2015年的历年粮食产量，探讨粮食产量发展的趋势，以期为云南省粮食生产政策制定和保障粮食安全提供参考。［方法］文章采用统计法，对云南省四大粮食主产区（曲靖、昭通、红河及大理）2006~2015年的粮食产量展开调查，以此为基础，计算并研究各产区粮食产量年际增幅和历年地区间产量差异。［结果］2006年曲靖、昭通、红河、大理的粮食产量分别为： 20.5亿、26.97亿、25.8亿、25.59亿kg； 2015年曲靖、昭通、红河、大理的粮食产量分别增长为： 33.45亿、45.13亿、36.73亿、35.13亿kg； 昭通粮食产量整体涨幅最大，大理涨幅最小。2006年和2007年， 4个产区粮食产量：昭通>红河>大理>曲靖。2008年和2009年， 4个产区粮食产量：昭通>大理>红河>曲靖。2010年， 4个产区粮食产量：昭通>红河>曲靖>大理。2011年， 4个产区粮食产量：昭通>大理>红河>曲靖。2012年之后， 4个产区粮食产量：昭通>红河>大理>曲靖。曲靖2007~2008年和2011~2012年的粮食产量年际增幅达到11.4%和15.3%，远高于2006~2007年的0.7%。昭通和红河2011~2012年的粮食产量年际增幅远高于其他年份。大理的粮食产量年际最高增幅出现在2010~2011年，达到23.8%，其在2009~2010年出现粮食产量的负增长。10年间曲靖的历年粮食产量均低于昭通和红河，除2010年略高于大理外，其他9年也是低于大理的。昭通的粮食产量连年高于其他3地，近年来这种差距还有增大的趋势。红河与大理的历年粮食产量差异有正有负，其中2008年、2009年和2011年的产量低于大理，其他年份均高于大理。［结论］2006~2015年的10年间，云南省四大粮食主产区（曲靖、昭通、红河、大理）的粮食产量总体表现为连续增加的态势，仅在个别地方的个别年份出现下降； 粮食产量年际增幅差异较大，但总体均呈现为产量增加的趋势； 历年粮食产量均存在不同程度的差异，昭通的粮食产量连年高于其他3地，近年来这种差距还表现为增大的趋势。随着政府扶持政策的推广，各种农田水利设施的建设，现代化高产农业技术的推行，云南省粮食主产区的粮食产量必定还会增加，会进一步促进整个云南省粮食产量的增收。

Abstract:

This paper compared and analyzed the grain yield of the four major grain producing areas (i.e., Qujing, Zhaotong, Honghe and Dali) in Yunnan from 2006 to 2015, and discussed the trend of grain production development in order to provide a reference for grain production policy development and guarantee food security in Yunnan province. The official statistics data from 2006 to 2015 was used to calculate regional intercrossing of grain production and regional differences. The results showed that the grain yields in Qujing, Zhaotong, Honghe and Dali in 2006 were 2.05, 2.69, 2.58, and 2.56 billion kg, respectively, which increased to 3.35, 4.51, 3.67 and 3.53 billion kg, respectively. The largest increase of grain output was in Zhaotong, while the smallest one was in Dali. 2006 and 2007, four producing areas of grain production: Zhaotong> Red River> Dali> Qujing. 2008 and 2009, four producing areas of grain production: Zhaotong> Dali> Red River> Qujing. 2010, four producing areas of grain production: Zhaotong> Red River> Qujing> Dali. In 2011, four producing areas of grain production: Zhaotong> Dali> Red River> Qujing. After 2012, four producing areas of grain production: Zhaotong> Red River> Dali> Qujing. For each area, the annual grain outputs were increased by 11.4% and 15.3% in Qujing from 2007 ~ 2008 and from 2011 ~ 2012. The annual grain output growth in Zhaotong and Honghe was much higher in 2011 ~ 2012 than that in other years. The grain output in Dali increased from 2010 to 2011, reaching 23.8%. The average grain production in Qujing was lower than that in Zhaotong and the Honghe. The grain output in Zhaotong was the highest than the other three regions. It concluded that the grain output in four main grain producing areas showed a continuous increase trend in the 10 years from 2006 to 2015, and only declined in individual years. The annual increase was quite different, but the overall trend was increasing; The food production in Zhaotong was the highest. The yield gap among these areas showed an increased trend in recent years. With the support of government policies, the construction of various farmland water conservancy facilities, and the implementation of modern and high-yielding agricultural technology, the grain production in the main grain producing areas of Yunnan province will continuously increase.