河北省碳足迹及碳承载力的时空演变分析

SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGES OF CARBON FOOTPRINT AND CARBON BEARING CAPACITY IN HEBEI PROVINCE

关键词:  碳足迹 碳承载力 净碳足迹 时空演变 河北省

Key words:  carbon footprint  carbon bearing capacity  net carbon footprint  spatiotemporal changes  Hebei province

摘要:

［目的］碳足迹及碳承载力的时空演变分析是当前分析温室气体排放量的热点问题。［方法］文章采用2004～2014年河北省化石能源消费数据、土地利用结构数据以及经济社会数据，通过构建碳足迹模型，基于ArcGIS平台对河北省11个地级市的碳足迹、碳承载力、净碳足迹进行时空演变分析。［结果］（1）2004～2014年河北省碳足迹由2.224 5亿t增长至4.792 2亿t，其中煤炭能源消费量占90%左右，唐山、邯郸和石家庄碳足迹值较高，分别占河北省碳足迹的33%、18%和16%； （2）2004～2014年河北省碳承载力由9 043万t增长至1.050 6亿t，其中林地碳承载力占河北省碳承载力的97%左右，西南地区农、林业发达，碳承载力相对较高； （3）2004～2014年河北省净碳足迹呈逐年上升趋势，由1.536 7亿t增长至4.236 5亿t，唐山、邯郸及石家庄净碳足迹较大，分别占河北省净碳足迹的40%、22%和16%； （4）除保定外，其他10个地级市的碳足迹压力指数变化强度均呈现不同程度的增强趋势。此次研究成果将为河北省未来制定温室气体排放量等相关政策的建设提供参考。［结论］整体来看，河北省碳足迹及碳承载力呈逐年增长的变化趋势，应加强温室气体的管控力度，减小碳排放给河北省带来的负面影响。

Abstract:

he temporal and spatial evolution of carbon footprint and carbon bearing capacity is a hot issue in the analysis of greenhouse gas emissions. Based on the data of fossil energy consumption, land use structure and economic and social data in Hebei Province from 2004 to 2014, through the construction of the carbon footprint model and ArcGIS platform, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal changes of carbon footprint, carbon footprint, carbon bearing capacity, and net carbon footprint for 11 prefecture-level cities in Hebei Province. The results show that:(1)The carbon footprint of Hebei Province increased from 222.45 million tons to 479.22 million tons in 2004-2014. The average annual growth rate was 10.11%, accounting for 90% of the total coal energy consumption. Therefore, coal was the main factor of carbon footprint in Hebei province. The carbon footprints of Tangshan, Handan and Shijiazhuang were higher, accounting for 33%, 18% and 16% of the carbon footprint. The distribution of carbon footprint was closely related to the city′s economic development speed (2)Carbon bearing capacity increased from 90.43 million tons to 105.06 million tons, the average annual growth rate was1.47%, which was affected by the financial crisis. Carbon capacity in Hebei province mainly concentrated in the southwest region, the bearing capacity of forest carbon accounted for about 97% of the carbon capacity in Hebei province. (3)The net carbon footprint increased from 153.67 million tons to 423.65 million tons in the past ten years, with the average annual growth rate of 15.93%.The net carbon footprint in Tangshan, Handan and Shijiazhuang were higher, accounting for 40%, 22% and 16% of the net carbon footprint of Hebei province. (4) The net carbon footprint pressure index in 10 prefecture cities except Baoding showed different degrees of enhancement. Finally, it put forward some suggestions, such as improving the ecological environment according to the net carbon footprint pressure index in different cities, and controlling greenhouse gases emissions to reduce the negative impacts of carbon emissions on Hebei Province. The results will provide reference for the future development of greenhouse gas emission and other related policies in Hebei province.