塔里木河流域人均粮食时空格局变化及驱动力分析——基于巴音郭勒蒙古自治州县域地力视角

SPATIAL TEMPORAL PATTERN CHANGE AND DRIVING FORCES OF GRAIN PER CAPITA IN THE TARIM RIVER BASIN BASED ON THE PERSPECTIVE OFCOUNTY FERTILITY BAYANGOL MONGOLIA AUTONOMOUS PREFECTURE

关键词:  人均粮食 时空格局 地理加权回归 耕地地力 塔里木河流域

Key words:  per capita grain  spatial pattern  GWR  soil fertility  Tarim River Basin

摘要:

我国经济发展进入“新常态”时期以来，在产业结构调整，经济增长要素驱动转换，供给侧改革等众多压力背景下，资源与环境、人口与粮食安全问题加剧凸显出来。耕地资源减少、耕地产能下降、粮食进口规模增大、农业生产积极性降低等从多个方面向粮食安全施压，并产生一系列社会、经济、生态附属问题。［目的］文章对被誉为“南疆粮仓”的塔里木河流域粮食安全问题进行研究，以期为中国粮食主产区之一的新疆提供“粮食-经济-社会”方面的理论和实践指导。［方法］该文选取塔里木河流域最大地级行政区巴州8县1市为研究对象，依据15年（1999～2014年）人均粮食变化数据构建模型，联合系统聚类，构造人均粮食时空格局分区，并引入地理加权回归模型、耕地地力OLS模型进行空间。［结果］15年间巴州各县人均粮食产量整体上升中存在两次明显波动，其中2007年各县平均降幅38.29%； 尉犁县、库尔勒市其人口与粮食缺口矛盾较大，粮食安全风险较大， 2007以后巴州边缘县域释放人均粮食产量升高的信号。［结论］自然状况因素、生产管理要素投入是巴州1999～2007年期间人均粮食增加的主要积极因素，而人口状况是人均粮食产量增幅的限制因素； 2007～2014年，自然状况因素、生产管理要素投入不再是人均粮食产量增加的主要积极因素； 巴州地区高等级耕地地力变化对人均粮食变化影响较大， 8等地每增加1%，人均粮食增加176.10kg； 中等、一般等级每增加1%，人均粮食减少67~488kg。

Abstract:

Since China′s economic development has entered a new normal period, under the background of the adjustment of industrial structure, economic growth factor transformation, and supply side reform, the social, economic and ecological problems appeared. Meanwhile, the reduction of cultivated land resources, arable land productivity, and the agricultural production enthusiasm had put great pressure on food security. Taking the Tarim River Basin, one of the major grain producing areas of Xinjiang, as an example, on the basis of the 15 years (1999-2014 years) , this paper built a model change of grain per capita data, combined with the cluster structure, analyzed the pattern of food per capita by introducing spatio-temporal partition, geographically weighted regression model, and OLS model of cultivated land fertility. The results showed that there were two obvious fluctuations of the per capita grain in Bazhou county.The average decline was 38.29% in 2007.The grain shortage contradiction was large in Korla and Yuli county. Natural condition factors, management factors were the main positive factors increasing per capita grain, while the population was a limiting factor. In 2014, the natural condition factors and production management were no longer the main positive factors of grain yield per capita. High grade farmland in Bazhou had great influence on the change of grain per capita, each increase of 8 to 1% would increase 176.10 kg of grain per capita.