我国不同区域在新阶段粮食连增中的贡献因素分析

THE CONTRIBUTION FACTOR OF THE CULTIVATED LAND USE EFFICIENCY IN THE NEW STAGE OF GRAIN GROWTH IN DIFFERENT REGIONS IN CHINA

关键词:  粮食增产 粮食单产 粮食作物比重 粮食主产区 LMDI模型

Key words:  grain production increase  grain yield per unit  ratio of grain sown area accounting to the total planting area of crops  major grain production area  LMDI model

摘要:

［目的］通过将我国三大粮食功能区粮食生产变化量的贡献因素分解为粮食单产贡献、耕地面积贡献、粮食播种面积占农作物总播种面积比值的贡献以及复种指数贡献四种，试图探讨各因素对粮食生产变化量的贡献及时空差异化原因。［方法］利用第二次国土资源普查数据对耕地面积进行调整，采用LMDI对数平均迪氏指数模型对我国31个省域粮食生产总量变化的贡献因素进行分解，并对不同区域粮食生产变化量贡献因素的时空差异进行比较分析。［结果］研究结果表明2004~2013年间粮食三大功能产区粮食生产变化量出现显著的空间分异，粮食生产分布向主产区集中，其对全国粮食连增的贡献率达到88%。在影响粮食生产变化量的贡献因素中，粮食单产因素对粮食十连增的贡献率达到60%，成为三大粮食产区尤其是主销区粮食生产的主要贡献因素，播种面积因素（包括耕地面积贡献、粮食播种面积占农作物总播种面积的比值贡献以及复种指数贡献）对粮食十连增的贡献率为40%。［结论］新阶段我国粮食连增主要由粮食主产区引领，粮食单产贡献是不同区域粮食生产变化量的主要贡献因素。

Abstract:

The factors such as grain yield per unit, cultivated land area, the ratio of grain sown area accounting to the total planting area of crops, and multiple cropping index can contribute to the grain yield. This paper explored the contribution of each factor to grain production and the reason for space-time differentiation based on the second land resources census data, using the LMDI (logarithmic mean weigh division) model. The results showed that there were significant spatial differences in the three functional areas of grain production. The grain production accounted for 88% of national grain production. The grain yield contributed 60% to the grain production. The total planting area of crops including cultivated land area, grain sown area, and multiple cropping index contributed 40% of the increase of grain production. In the new stage, the continuous grain increase in China was dominated by the major production areas, and the grain yield per unit was the main contribution factor of grain production variation in different regions.