天津设施蔬菜种植户的生产决策行为及其影响因素分析

ANALYSIS ON VEGETABLE FARMERS′ DECISION-MAKING AND INFLUENCING FACTORS

关键词:  设施蔬菜 生产决策 有序Logistic模型 天津

Key words:  facility vegetable  production decision  ordinal logistic regression model  Tianjin

摘要:

［目的］目前我国蔬菜已经超过粮食总产值，成为我国第一大农产品。蔬菜产业对促进农民增收，提高国民生活质量具有重要的战略意义。天津把“减粮增菜”作为“十三五”现代都市农业发展的重要目标之一，这一目标实现的关键是设施蔬菜种植户的经营决策行为。通过对天津32个村的223户设施蔬菜种植户的实地调研，掌握了天津设施蔬菜经营现状。［方法］构建了农户生产经营决策的评价指标体系，运用有序Logistic回归模型，分析蔬菜种植户的经营决策行为，并得出各影响因素的重要程度。［结果］农户年龄、生产年限、技术培训和政府的农业规划对农户设施生产决策行为具有显著性影响，而其他因素均不显著。［结论］文章得出政府应在农业技术培训、新型农业经营主体培育、财政支农政策、蔬菜产业发展规划等方面加大投入力度，以期推进设施蔬菜的规模化、科技化和专业化，从而促进农民增收、农业增效。

Abstract:

At present, Chinese vegetables output is more than grain output. Vegetables already become Chinese first major agricultural products. The purpose of this paper was to increase vegetable farmers′ income by developing facility vegetable. Based on the survey data from 223 facilities vegetable farmers in 32 villages in Tianjin, the paper analyzed the current situation of facility vegetable industry development, established an assessment indicator system of peasant household operating decision, and evaluated the importance of each factors using the methods of polyphyletic logistic regression model. The results showed that farmers′ age, productive time, technical training and governmental agricultural planning were significant factors on farmer′ decision-making. At last, it concluded that the government should pay more attention to agriculture technical training, new production and operation entity cultivation, agriculture supporting fiscal policies, and vegetable industry development planning, so as to increase farmers′ income and agriculture production efficiency.