新疆棉农低碳生产行为及其影响因素分析——以化肥施用为例

ANALYSIS ON XINJIANG COTTON FARMERS’ LOW CARBON PRODUCTION BEHAVIORS AND THE AFFECTING FACTORS——BASED ON FERTILIZER

关键词:  农户行为 低碳生产 影响因素 回归分析 新疆

Key words:  farmers′ behaviors  low-carbon production  affecting factors  regression analysis  Xinjiang

摘要:

［目的］农业活动释放大量温室气体，已成为全球气候变化的重要贡献者。研究旨在探讨棉农农业低碳生产行为与其影响因素之间的关系，从农户层面上寻找降低碳排放的有效途径，为新疆低碳农业发展提供参考。［方法］利用在新疆棉花种植区的调研数据，以化肥施用为例，采用Binary Logisitic模型，对新疆棉农低碳生产行为进行分析，对其影响因素进行实证检验。［结果］农户年龄、种植规模、受教育程度、生产中考虑对环境的影响及污染治理对农业生产重要等均对棉农化肥施用量有显著影响，其中，农户年龄与受教育程度是负向影响。［结论］基于研究，提出政府要加强绿色种植及低碳生产理念的宣传以提高棉农低碳种植知识及技术认知，分年龄段对棉农制定有针对性的培训、教育、激励策略以引导其理性选择低碳生产行为，以及构建技术创新农户示范平台以加强棉农之间的交流、推进农业低碳技术指导与推广等对策建议。

Abstract:

Agricultural activity has emitted a large amount of greenhouse gases, and has become an important contributor to global climate change. The study explored farmers′ low carbon agricultural production behavior and its influencing factors, so as to find an effective way to reduce carbon emissions based on the farmers′ level, and provide reference for low carbon agricultural development in Xinjiang, using the method of the Binary Logisitic model. The results showed that farmers′ age, cultivation scale, education level, consideration on the affection on environment in production, pollution control of agriculture production, and so on, had significant effects on cotton farmers′ fertilizer application. Among them, farmers′ age and education level were negatively factors. Finally, it proposed some countermeasures and strategies, such as strengthening the propagandization of green cultivation and low-carbon production conceptions, formulating targeted training, educating and motivating strategies, establishing technology-innovation farmer demonstration platform to enhance farmers′ communication, and promoting the guidance and promotion of low carbon technology in agriculture, and so on.