1984～2014年农业种养结构变化对城乡居民食物消费升级的响应研究

THE AGRICULTURAL FARMING AND RAISING STRUCTURE CHANGES ACCORDING TO URBAN AND RURAL RASIDENTS′ FOOD CONSUMPTION PROMOTION FROM 1984 TO 2014

关键词:  种养结构 食物消费 结构熵 灰色关联 响应-反馈机制

Key words:  agricultural farming structure  food consumption  structure entropy  grey relation  responding and feedback mechanism

摘要:

［目的］基于1984~2014年中国城乡居民食物消费与种养用地面积变化的时间序列数据，通过分析农业种养结构与食物消费之间的互馈机制，从人口与资源维度、农业维度、市场维度多视角研究农业种养结构对城乡居民食物消费升级的响应。［方法］通过引进食物消费结构熵与种养结构熵，首先说明了食物消费与种养用地转型的新趋势，然后利用灰色关联分析将诱使各类种养用地面积变化的主导因素提炼出来。［结果］（1）城乡居民食物消费结构熵与农业种养结构熵均向多元、均衡方向发展且年均增长率分别达到3.29%与1.73%，食物消费结构熵变化速度快于种养结构熵；（2）农业种养结构熵与城乡居民食物消费结构熵具有联动增减性。从相关系数看，城镇家庭食物消费对种养结构变化贡献率较农村地区高5.30%； （3）通过灰色分析发现，人口与资源条件、农业条件、市场条件中各指标均与种养结构的变化存在极强、强、中等关联度。其中，人均水资源量（A1）、农业机械总动力（B1）、农林牧渔水利业电力消费量（B2）、CPI（C3）又与种植业（Z）、畜牧业（X）、渔业（Y）变化存在r>0.90的极强关联；（4）种植业内部结构也存在粮食作物与菜瓜果、糖油料等经济作物的不断竞争， 1984年菜瓜果、粮食面积分别占种养用地总面积的2.02%、80.64%， 2014年占比变为6.69%、57.47%，表现出菜瓜果缓慢扩张、粮食剧烈收缩的整体态势。［结论］农业种养结构因中国城乡居民的食物消费增厚而逐渐转型，为寻求农业种养结构调整的改良效应，实现供需相契，必须削减不合时宜的农产品供应、合理配置粮经饲用地以适应需求升级的情况。

Abstract:

Based on the time series data of food consumption and land use change of urban and rural residents in China from 1984 to 2014, this paper analyzed the mutual feedback mechanism between agricultural farming and raising structure and food consumption, studied the response of agricultural farming and raising structure to the upgrading of food consumption of urban and rural residents from the perspective of population and resource dimension, agricultural dimension and market dimension. And then, it explained the new tendency of food consumption and farming land transformation by introducing the food consumption structure entropy and farming structure entropy, and analyzed the major factors promoting the change of the variety of farming land area using grey relational analysis. The study showed that: (1) The structure of resident food consumption and agricultural farming showed a multicultural and balanced tendency, with annual growth rate of 3.29% and 1.73%, respectively. Food consumption structure grew faster than agricultural farming structure. (2)There was a linkage increase and decrease between agricultural farming structure and food consumption structure. According to the correlation coefficient, urban household food consumption had a higher contribution rate of 5.30% in terms of the change of agricultural farming structure than rural area household food consumption. (3) By grey relational analysis, population, resources, agriculture and market had extremely strong, strong and medium impacts on agricultural farming structure change. Among these factors, per capita water resources (A1), total power of agricultural machinery (B1), agriculture and water conservancy industry power consumption (B2) and Consumer Price Index (C3), had extremely strong relationships (r>0.90) with planting(Z), animal husbandry(X) and fishery(Y). (4) There was a constant competition between grain crops and cash crops, such as vegetables, melons, fruits, sugar and oil crops in planting structure. In 1984, vegetables, melons and fruits planting area and grain planting area accounted for 2.02% and 80.64% of the farming area, respectively, which accounted for 6.69% and 57.47%, respectively in 2014. The vegetables, melons and fruits planting area expanded slowly and the grain planting area shrank rapidly. The structure of agricultural farming was changed due to the increase of food consumption of urban and rural residents in China. It should reduce the supply of inappropriate agricultural products and allocate food and feed land to meet the demands.