全国苹果种植收益波动特征及其影响因素分析——基于1991～2014年苹果种植收益数据的实证分析

CHARACTERISTICS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF THE BENEFIT OF APPLE PLANTING IN CHINA——AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON THE APPLE PLANTING

关键词:  苹果 种植收益 变动趋势 影响因素 VAR模型

Key words:  apple  profit of planting  trend of change  influencing factors  VAR model

摘要:

［目的］文章依据1991～2014年全国苹果种植成本收益的年度数据，在对苹果种植收益波动特征进行描述性分析的基础上，选取苹果单位面积净收益、单位面积物质与服务费用、单位面积产量和单位产品出售价格这些变量来研究对苹果种植收益的影响。［方法］通过构建VAR模型，并运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解来分析苹果种植收益的影响因素。［结果］苹果种植产值和净收益总体上呈上升的态势，成本利润率呈现出M型的波动趋向。苹果种植净利润的增长主要得益于产值的增加高于总成本的增加，而产值的增加又得益于苹果单产的提高和出售价格的上涨。单位产品出售价格对苹果种植净收益的影响最大，其次是单位面积产量和单位面积物质与服务费用。［结论］完善苹果价格形成机制，逐步实现苹果定价机制的市场化和定价水平的合理化； 增强农业基础设施建设的投入，加强苹果种植综合生产的能力； 抑制农资成本和价格的过快增长，降低种植成本是增加苹果种植净收益的重要手段。

Abstract:

According to the annual data of cost-benefit of apple planting in China from 1991 to 2014, this paper analyzed the benefit characteristics of apple planting, and chose apples′ net proceeds of unit area, cost of material and service, output of unit area and offering price of unit product to explore the influence factors of apple benefit, by establishing a VAR model, the impulse response functions, and the variance decomposition. The results showed that the production value and net proceeds of apple planting presented an increasing trend in general and the rate of cost-plus margin fluctuated in an M type. The increase of contribution margin of apple planting benefited from the increase of total output revenue, meanwhile the increase of total output revenue benefited from the improvement of unit output and unit selling price. By empirical analysis, the offering price of unit product, unit product outputs and cost of material and service had the greatest impacts on net benefits. Finally, it put forward some suggestions to increase the net income, such as improving pricing mechanism, strengthening the investment of agricultural infrastructure construction, enhancing the comprehensive production capacity of apple planting, and reducing the agricultural means of production and the planting cost.