新型城镇化背景下郑州市新生代农民工城市定居意愿影响因素研究

STUDY ON INFLUENTIAL FACTORS OF CITY-SETTLEMENTS WILLINGNESS OF NEW GENERATION OF MIGRANT WORKERS UNDER NEW-TYPE URBANIZATION

关键词:  新型城镇化 新生代农民工 留城意愿 影响因素 郑州市

Key words:  new-type urbanization  new generation of migrant workers  city-settlements willingness  influence factor  Zhengzhou

摘要:

［目的］当前，推进新型城镇化建设已经成为国家健康快速发展的紧要问题。李克强总理在2015年全国人大会议上作政府工作报告时提出“以人为本的新型城镇化”，强调城镇化建设中人的核心地位，在人的因素中新生代农民工是推进新型城镇化的最重要力量，他们的居留意愿成为决定新型城镇化的现在与未来成败的关键因素。因此，研究新生代农民工城市定居的意愿特征以及影响因素就具有很强的现实意义。［方法］通过调查问卷和实地访谈的形式对郑州市新生代农民工进行调研，在以第一手资料为基础的提前下，运用随机森林模型，从个人因素、家庭因素、制度因素和社会文化等4个方面中的24个因素实证分析影响郑州市新生代农民工留城意愿的特征和因素。［结果］影响新生代农民工留城意愿最显著的要素依次是从事职业类型、在城市工作时间、个人收入、家庭收入因素、是否参加城镇养老保险和是否享受城镇住房公积金。［结论］文章有针对性地提出发展教育、增加家庭收入和改善社会福利等解决问题的措施。

Abstract:

At present, the promotion of the construction of the new urbanization has become an urgent concern of the healthy development of the nation. Prime Minister Li Keqiang put forward a new type of urbanization which named "people-oriented" urbanization at the meeting of the National People′s Congress in 2015 during the government work report. The further study of the willingness and influence factors of the peasant worker′s settling down in city has strong practical significance. Based on the on-site survey and interviews, and the random forest model, this paper analyzed four aspects of personal factors, family factors, institutional factors and socio-cultural factor. The results showed that the influential factors high to low were current occupation, working-hours in city, personal income, family income, whether to join pension insurance, whether to share housing provident fund. Finally, the article put forward some suggestions, such as developing the education, increasing household income, and improving social welfare.