基于投入视角的河南省农业碳排放时空演化特征与影响因素分解

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND FACTOR DECOMPOSITION ON AGRICULTURAL CARBON EMISSIONS IN HENAN PROVINCE

关键词:  农业碳排放 时空演化 LMDI 影响因素 河南省

Key words:  agricultural carbon emissions  spatial-temporal evolution  LMDI model  influential factors  Henan province

摘要:

［目的］对河南省农业碳排放进行测算，并分析其时空演化特征与影响因素，可为实现低碳农业发展提供依据。［方法］基于农业生产中翻耕、灌溉、化肥、农药、农膜和农用柴油等6个方面碳源，采用碳转化系数法、标准差、变异系数与探索性空间分析方法（ESDA）对河南省1993~2015年的农业碳排放及其时空演变进行了分析。运用LMDI模型对河南省农业碳排放影响因素进行分解。［结果］河南省农业碳排放量和排放强度总体上均呈上升趋势，年均增速分别为4.32%和3.72%。河南省农业碳排放量空间分布呈较为明显的集聚特征，主要年份高碳排放区集中于豫东南地区； 碳排放强度多为Ⅱ级和Ⅲ级水平，空间分布更为均衡。23年来，河南省各地农业碳排放量和排放强度的相对差异与绝对差异整体上均呈扩大趋势，农业碳排放量的集聚趋势更为明显，高碳排放区域有向豫东南和豫北地区进一步集聚的趋势，农业碳排放强度趋向于均衡化发展。生产效率、劳动力和结构因素对碳排放有抑制作用，而农业经济发展因素对碳排放具有促进作用。［结论］未来河南省还须进一步采取措施，有效实现农业碳减排。

Abstract:

By analyzing the agricultural carbon emission and its temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and influencing factors in Henan province, it can provide a basis for the realization of low carbon agriculture development. Based on six kinds of factors of agricultural production, such as plowing, irrigation, chemical fertilizer, agricultural pesticide, agricultural film and agricultural diesel oil, the agricultural carbon emissions and its temporal evolution from 1993 to 2015 in Henan province were analyzed by using coefficient of carbon conversion, standard deviation, coefficient of variation and the exploratory spatial analysis method (ESDA). Furthermore, the paper decomposed the influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions by using LMDI model. The results indicated that the amount of agricultural carbon emission and emission intensity in Henan province showed an upward trend, with an average annual growth rate of 4.32% and 3.72%, respectively. The amount of agricultural carbon emission had a significant characteristic of spatial concentrations in Henan province, because all high carbon emissions areas concentrated the southeast region of Henan province. The intensity of carbon emission was mostly level II and III, and the spatial distribution was balanced. In recent 23 years, the absolute and relative differences of total agricultural carbon emissions and emission intensity both had a trend of gradually enlarging with volatility among 18 cities in Henan province. The agglomeration trend of total agricultural carbon emissions was more obvious, high carbon emission area further concentrated to the southeast and northern parts of Henan province. The agglomeration trend of agricultural carbon emission intensity gradually weakened and tended to become balanced development. Production efficiency, labor force and agricultural structure had inhibitory actions on agricultural carbon emissions, while the development of agriculture had a positive effect. Therefore, effective measures should be taken to achieve agricultural carbon emission reduction.