土地利用结构、经济发展与土地碳排放影响效应研究——以乌鲁木齐市为例

STUDY ON EFFECT OF LAND USE STRUCTURE,ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND LAND CARBON EMISSION——A CASE STUDY OF URUMQI

关键词:  土地利用 碳排放效应 EKC曲线 灰色关联度模型 乌鲁木齐市

Key words:  land use  carbon emission effect  improved GE model  EKC curve  Urumqi city

摘要:

［目的］在测算乌鲁木齐市土地利用碳排放的基础上，分析其土地利用结构、经济发展与土地碳排放间的关联效应，为乌鲁木齐市低碳土地利用提供参考。［方法］改进型灰色关联度模型、环境EKC模型。［结果］（1）土地利用净碳排放总量递增趋势，净碳放量的持续上升显著地受建设用地碳排放增长的影响；（2）不同地类结构变化对土地利用碳排放影响效应呈现不同特点，建设用地对碳排放影响效应呈下降趋势，而耕地则在上升； （3）经济发展促进了碳排放增长，但在2014～2015年之间达到拐点，验证了环境库兹涅兹曲线的存在。［结论］（1）推动增汇减排工作，抑制农用地转用，增加陆地生态碳吸收量； （2）发展低碳经济，提高能源利用效率和改善能源利用结构，降低建设用地碳排放； （3）深入推行“多规合一”，提高土地利用宏观调控效率和低碳生态城市建设。

Abstract:

On the basis of calculating the land use carbon emission in Urumqi, this paper analyzed the correlation effect between land use structure/economic development and carbon emissions, so as to provide the basis for low-carbon land use in the study area, using the methods of the improved gray relational model and environment EKC model. The results showed that (1) the total net land use carbon emissions showed an increasing trend, and it was significantly affected by the emissions of construction land; (2) The effect of different land types on the carbon emissions showed different characteristics. The effect of construction land on carbon emission declined, while the effects of the cultivated land was rising; (3) economic development promoted carbon emissions growth, but reached the inflection point in the 2014~2015 years, which was verified as the existence of environmental Kuznets curve. Finally, it suggested (1) strengthening the emission reduction by increasing the exchange rate, restraining the conversion of agricultural land and increasing the amount of terrestrial ecological carbon absorption; (2) developing low-carbon economy, improving energy efficiency and improving the structure of energy utilization, and reducing carbon emissions from construction land; (3) carrying out "multi regulation and one" in depth to improve the efficiency of land use macro-control and low-carbon eco city construction.