基于Logistic及文本分析的华北地下水漏斗区农户种植马铃薯意愿研究

THE WILLINGNESS TO GROW POTATOES IN NORTH CHINA GROUNDWATER DEPRESSION COME BASED ON LOGISTIC AND TEXT ANALYSIS METHODS

关键词:  马铃薯 种植意愿 影响因素 Logistic模型 文本分析

Key words:  potato  growing willingness  influence factors  Logistic Model  Text Analysis

摘要:

［目的］对华北地下水漏斗区-河北地区的农户种植马铃薯的意愿及其影响因素，以及农户生产种植中遇到的问题进行定量与定性分析。［方法］基于149家马铃薯种植户的问卷调查，运用Logistic与文本分析方法进行研究。［结果］经定量分析表明，农业人口占家庭人口的比例、单位面积投入、土地使用情况、资金使用情况、马铃薯种植年限、单位面积产量以及销售渠道等这7个因素对农户种植马铃薯的意愿产生显著性影响； 经文本分析发现，农户急切需要得到政府的帮助，特别是生产种植技术、补贴政策、机械化程度以及销售渠道等方面的援助。［结论］农业人口占家庭人口的比例越高，单位面积投入越高，土地使用以及资金使用越高，则农户种植马铃薯的意愿就越低； 马铃薯种植年限越高，单位面积产量越高以及销售畅通，农户种植马铃薯的意愿就越高； 农户的基本情况如农民的年龄与文化程度、家庭收入特征、用水情况、培训以及补贴状况等因素对马铃薯种植意愿的影响并不明显。

Abstract:

This paper analyzed the factors influencing growers′ willingness to grow potatoes in the North China groundwater depression cone using Logistic Model and Text Analysis Method based on 149 questionnaires. The results showed that these seven factors, i.e., the ratio of agricultural population in family population, input per mu, land, capital, planting-life, yield per mu and sale channels had obvious influence on farmers′ willingness. The farmers needed the help of government in the aspects of planting technique, subsidy policy, mechanization and distribution channels. The high ratio of agricultural population in family population and high input of land and capital decreased the willingness; while, the high planting-life, yield per mu and sale channels increased growers′ willingness. The farmers′ age, education, family income feature, water using, training and subsidy had no obvious influence on the willingness.