基于超效率SBM和BRT的农业生态文明建设效率分析

EFFICIENCY OF AGRICULTURAL ECO-CIVILIZATION CONSTRUCTION BASED ON SBM-UNDESIRABLE MODEL AND BOOSTING REGRESSION TREE METHOD

关键词:  农业生态文明建设 非期望SBM模型 超效率 增强回归树 影响因素

Key words:  agricultural eco-civilization establishment  SBM-undesirable Model  Super Efficiency  Boosting Regression Tree  affecting factors

摘要:

［目的］测度农业生态文明建设效率并分析其影响因素，揭示我国农业生态文明建设的省际差异及其存在的问题，分析改善潜力，提出改善措施。［方法］采用包含非期望产出的超效率SBM模型测度了我国2011~2014年各省份和四大区域（东北、东部、中部和西部）农业生态文明建设效率，并采用增强回归树方法分析了农业生态文明建设效率省际差异的影响因素。［结果］东北地区农业生态文明建设效率最高，其次是东部地区和西部地区，中部地区最低。中部地区、天津、贵州的农业源氨氮排放量和天津、宁夏的农业源化学需氧量排放量存在较大的冗余，具有较大的削减潜力； 农业结构因素对农业生态文明建设效率省际差异的贡献度最大，畜牧业比重和种植业比重对农业生态文明建设效率省际差异的贡献率分别达到了17.1%和14.4%。其次是资源投入和经济发展水平，财政支持和区域因素的贡献度相对较小； 农业生态文明建设效率总体上与人均GDP、农林水财政支出比重正相关，与畜牧业比重呈v型关系，与种植业比重、农业用水强度、化肥投入强度和农村用电强度负相关。［结论］优化农牧结构、提高财政支农力度、改善农业资源利用效率以及削减农业源污染物排放量是改善农业生态文明建设效率的重要途径。

Abstract:

This paper evaluated the provincial and regional agricultural eco-civilization construction efficiency during 2011~2014, using the super efficiency SBM Model including undesirable outputs,analyzed the factors affecting provincial differences of agricultural eco-civilization construction efficiency based on the Boosting Regression Tree Method,and put forward the improvement measures. The results showed that the most efficient region was the north-eastern region, following by the eastern, western and central region. Agricultural ammonia nitrogen emissions in central region, Tianjin city and Guizhou province, and agricultural COD emissions in Tianjin city and Guizhou province had higher redundancy. So it had larger reduction potentials of agricultural pollutant emissions in these provinces. Agricultural structure was the most important affecting factor, following by resource input intensity and economic development level. The animal husbandry and planting industry contributed 17.1% and 14.4% to provincial differences of efficiency, respectively. The agricultural eco-civilization construction efficiencies were positively correlated to GDP per capita and the agricultural, forestry and water fiscal expenditure, and negatively correlated to the planting industry percentage, agricultural water input, fertilizer input and rural electricity input, which showed "v" type relationship with the animal husbandry percentage. However, the agricultural, forestry and water fiscal expenditure contributed relatively less to provincial differences of agricultural eco-civilization construction efficiency. Finally, it put forward some suggestions including optimizing agricultural structure, increasing utilization efficiency of agricultural input, and reducing agricultural pollutants emission.