栀子花期低温冷害风险区划研究——以湖北蕲春为例

RISK REGIONALIZATION OF GARDENIA LOSS CAUSED BY CHILLING INJURY ON FLOWERING STAGE——A CASE STUDY OF QICHUN, HUBEI PROVINC

关键词:  栀子 低温 冷害 风险 区划

Key words:  Gardenia  low temperature  chilling injury  risk  regionalization

摘要:

［目的］确定栀子花期低温冷害指标，研究栀子花期低温冷害风险区划方法，以蕲春县为例开展栀子花期低温冷害风险区划，为蕲春栀子种植提供参考。［方法］利用湖北省蕲春县1990~2010年栀子产量资料及同期气象观测资料，通过统计分析冷害持续日数、冷害期间日平均气温<20℃累积危害积温、极端最低气温、降温幅度等指标与栀子产量的关系，建立了栀子花期低温冷害损失模型。以<20℃累积危害积温为指标，以损失率5%、10%、30%为阈值，确定了栀子花期轻度、中度、重度、严重冷害分级标准，然后利用蕲春县1：25万数字高程模型及蕲春县逐日平均气温、最低气温观测资料，推算网格点1959~2010年5月1~20日逐日最低气温、平均气温，构建冷害风险指数，计算各网格点的冷害风险指数，进行了蕲春县栀子冷害气候风险区划。［结果］蕲春县西部低山区栀子花期冷害风险较小，适宜栀子种植；400m以上的山区冻害风险大，种植栀子只开花不结果。［结论］栀子花期低温冷害风险区划结果在蕲春栀子种植基地规划中有一定参考意义。

Abstract:

To determine the chilling injury index of Gardenia and perform risk regionalization of chilling injury over Gardenia farming in Qichun county, Hubei province, yield data and meteorological observation data from 1990 to 2010 were analyzed.And then ,the regionalization was made with consideration of the relationships among Gardenia yield and its factors such as chilling injury days, <20℃ cumulative damage temperature, extreme minimum temperature, and temperature falling range.And then, the assessment model of loss caused by chilling injury on flowering stage was established. Based on the thresholds of <20℃ cumulative damage temperature, the Gardenia chilling injury on flowering stage was classified into four different categories: light, medium, heavy, and power. The risk evaluation model of Gardenia chilling injury was built and used to calculate the chilling injury risk index of 1:250 000 grid point using daily average temperature and minimum temperature in Qichun county from 1959~2010. According to the chilling injury risk index, Qichun county could by divided into four risk levels. The first one was the low risk zone, which included the townships of Pengsi, Guanjiao, Qizhou, Hengche, Chidong, Caohe and Liuhe. In this zone, the probability of severe cold damage was almost 0, it was suitable for planting of Gardenia. The second one was the medium risk zone, which included the townships of Zhulin, Shizi, Zhangbang, Xiangqiao, Qingshi, Datong and Shanlin. The third one was the severe risk area with the altitude at 200~300m.In this area, where can easily suffer from chilling injury, so the seed setting rate and yield were lower. The fourth one was serious risk area, where the elevation was above 400m and the Gardenia planting was not suitable.