贵州省雷电灾害风险评价与区划研究

RISK ASSESSMENT AND ZONING OF LIGHTNING DISASTER IN GUIZHOU PROVINCE

关键词:  雷电灾害 定量化 投影寻踪 风险评价 区划

Key words:  lightning disaster  quantification  projection pursuit clustering  risk assessment  zoning

摘要:

［目的］从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防雷减灾能力4个方面确定13个评价指标开展雷电灾害风险评价与区划研究，实现定量化的雷电灾害风险评价。［方法］应用闪电监测资料、土壤数据库资料、GTOP30数据集以及社会经济统计和相关地理信息数据，基于目标、准则、指标层建立雷电灾害风险评价模型，采用投影寻踪方法获取指标权重，定量化分析致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性以及防雷减灾能力强弱，研究综合雷电灾害风险并完成等级划分。［结果］贵州省雷电灾害风险西部高于东部，整体呈现由西南部向东北部递减。其中西部的水城、六枝、普定、晴隆以及贵阳的云岩区、南明区、白云区中北部为高风险区，次低及低风险区主要分布在威宁及赫章西部区域、开阳东北部、平塘中东部、独山、荔波、万山、玉屏、碧江、思南、石阡、沿河的部分区域。［结论］通过灾前风险识别，可针对性的制定综合对策，为提高贵州省雷电灾害防御能力提供科学决策参考。

Abstract:

This paper established the risk assessment model of Thunder Hazard from 13 evaluation indexes and four aspects of disaster, i.e., causing factors, disaster environment, disaster bearing body and lightning protection and disaster reduction capacity. The index weight was obtained by projection pursuit method, the hazard of disaster factors and the sensitivity of environment were determined quantitatively. And then, based on the lightning monitoring data, soil database data, GTOP30 data set, social economic statistics and relevant geographic information data, it assessed the lightning risk and achieved the grade division of lightning risk assessment. The results showed that lightning disaster risk was higher in the west than that in the east, which totally decreased from the southwest to the northeast in Guizhou province. The high risk regions were in the west, such as Shuicheng, Liuzhi, Puding, Qinglong and Yunyan, Nanming, and North Central in Baiyun of Guiyang. while the low risk areas mainly distributed in parts of Weining and Western Hezhang region, northeast of Kaiyang, Middle East of Pingtang, Dushan, Libo, Wanshan, Yuping, Shiqian, Bijiang, Sinan, and Yanhe. Through the pre-disaster risk identification, the comprehensive countermeasures can be formulated to provide scientific decision reference for improving the defense capability of lightning disasters in Guizhou province.