食用菌出口结构与产业增长的互进关系——基于VAR模型的分析

THE MUTUAL SUPPORT RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORT STRUCTURE AND INDUSTRIAL GROWTH OF THE EDIBLE MUSHROOM——BASED ON THE VAR MODEL

关键词:  食用菌初级品 食用菌加工品 出口结构 产业增长 VAR模型

Key words:  edible mushroom primary products  edible mushroom processed products  export structure  industrial growth  the VAR model

摘要:

［目的］中国食用菌产业作为节地节水、促进生态循环的特色产业，与其他园艺产品相比，具有明显的出口竞争优势，其不同的出口结构对产业拉动的力度有所不同，理清其出口结构和产业增长的互动关系，将有利于引导中国食用菌出口发展方向以及产业结构的优化。［方法］基于VAR模型的计量方法，通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应及方差分解等对1978~2013年中国食用菌初级品及加工品的出口结构、食用菌产业规模及农业经济增长之间的关系进行实证研究。［结果］食用菌出口、产业规模和经济增长之间存在长期稳定的协整关系；相对食用菌初级品出口而言，农业经济增长与产业规模对食用菌加工品出口的拉动效果比中长期更明显、持续性更强；食用菌加工品出口更能带动农业经济增长，对产业规模的拉动期更长、拉动力更强。［结论］食用菌出口和产业增长有良好的互动性，发展食用菌精深加工、优化食用菌出口结构、注重品质及品牌发展，将有利于继续提高食用菌出口竞争力，对调整和优化产业结构，进而推动食用菌产业平稳快速发展具有重要意义。

Abstract:

The edible mushroom is an instinctive industry, characterized by saving land and water resources as well as promoting the ecological cycle, and it has obvious export competitive advantages comparing to other horticultural products. Different export structures have different industry-driven effects on the edible mushroom industry. So it is very important to clarify the interactive relationship between export structure and industry growth to guide developing trend of the edible mushroom export and optimize the industrial structure. This paper uses methods of co-integration test, granger causality test, impulse response and variance decomposition based on the VAR model, to describe the relationship of the edible mushroom primary products and processed products, edible mushroom industry scale, and agricultural economic growth from 1978 to 2013 in China. The result shows that, there are long term stable co-integrate relationship among edible mushroom export, industry scale and economy growth. Compared with edible mushroom primary products export, agricultural economic growth and industry scale play a more important role on edible mushroom processed products export in a medium and long term, and the effect is more sustainable. On the other hand, the export of processed products is more conductive to promote agricultural economic growth and industry scale in a longer and stronger way rather than primary products. Therefore, there is good interaction between export structure and industry growth of edible mushroom. Developing intensive processing edible mushroom, optimizing export structure and paying more attention to quality and brand development will be beneficial to improve the export competitiveness, optimize industry structure, and develop industry quickly.