黑龙江省玉米生产分析与未来方向

ANALYSIS AND FUTURE DIRECTION OF MAIZE PRODUCTION IN HEILONGJIANG PROVINCE

关键词:  黑龙江 玉米生产 经济 气候 技术 产量潜力

Key words:  Heilongjiang  maize production  economy  climate  technology  yield potential

摘要:

［目的］玉米是黑龙江省最重要的作物，目前面临着压缩面积的严峻形势，文章期望探究黑龙江省玉米生产的发展方向。［方法］通过对面板数据和实验数据的分析，归纳总结了近年来黑龙江省玉米生产情况的演变规律、气候的变化特点及对玉米生产的影响、经济政策因素对玉米生产的影响。［结果］黑龙江省玉米总产量的增加主要是种植面积扩大的结果，而面积扩大的主要原因是社会需求扩大和政府政策支持。玉米单产提高的贡献相对较小，影响单产提高的技术因素从高到低依次是密植、施肥和品种改良。同时气候变化对玉米生产的影响利大于弊。［结论］黑龙江省玉米生产未来的战略应该是推行休耕补贴控制种植面积； 推广少免耕栽培方式，实行玉米秸秆还田，做到土地用养平衡； 采用早熟、耐密、抗倒、高产、适合机械直收的品种，合理密植与精准施肥，提高单产降低成本，全面提高玉米生产的资源利用率、土地产出率和劳动生产率，降低单位粮食成本，提高玉米竞争力。

Abstract:

Maize is the most important crop in Heilongjiang province. Heilongjiang is facing with severe situation of the compressed maize area. In order to explore the development direction of maize production in Heilongjiang, based on the analysis of panel data and experimental data, this paper summarized the recent production situation, climate change characteristic and its influence on the production of maize, and the influence of economic policies on the maize production in Heilongjiang. The results showed that the increase of total yield of maize in Heilongjiang was mainly caused by the increase of planting area, and the main reason for the enlargement of the area was the expansion of social demand and the support of government policy. The contribution of maize yield increase was relatively small, and the technical factors that affected the yield increase from high to low were close planting, fertilization and variety improvement. At the same time, the effect of climate change on maize production had more advantages than disadvantages. The strategic of maize production in Heilongjiang in the future should limit the planted area by providing fallow subsidies, promote no tillage cultivation methods, implement of maize straw, maintain balance between land use and fertilizer, plant early maturity, high yield, high density, lodging resistance, and suitable for grain harvest of varieties, reasonable planting density and precision fertilization, improve the yield and reduce the cost, comprehensive improve land productivity and the utilization rate of maize production resources, reduce the cost per unit of grain, and improve the competitiveness of maize.