菏泽多时间尺度气温变化特征及其突变性

THE MULTI-TIME SCALE TEMPERATURE CHANGE CHARACTERISTIC AND THE MUTABILITY OF HEZE

关键词:  菏泽 气温变化 多时间尺度 变化趋势 突变

Key words:  Heze  temperature change  multi-time scale  change trend  mutation

摘要:

［目的］为了找出近40年来菏泽气温变化的特点及规律，为农业生产和农业气候资源区划提供科学依据，文章分析了菏泽多时间尺度气温的变化特征及其突变性。［方法］利用菏泽地面气象观测站提供的1971~2010年的年平均气温、季平均气温、年最高最低气温、高温低温日数资料，采用一元一次线性回归法、六阶多项式线性拟合法、变异系数法、显著性检验、Mann-Kendall突变性检验的方法分别进行分析研究。［结果］（1）近40年来菏泽的年平均气温呈显著上升的趋势，气候倾向率为0. 36℃/10年；（2）四季平均气温均呈显著上升的趋势，其中冬季升温最为显著，线性速率为0.54℃/10年，秋季、春季次之，夏季最小；（3）最高气温以0.13℃/10年的线性速率增加，最低气温以0.587℃/10年线性趋势升高，最高气温的增温趋势明显低于最低气温的增温趋势，其气候倾向率和突变性存在明显的非对称性变化的特征；（4）高温日数（≥35℃）以1.09d/10年线性趋势增加，低温日数以0.81d/10年线性速率减少；（5）年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温分别在1993年、1979年、1982年发生了突变。［结论］近40年来菏泽的年、季平均气温、年最高最低气温具有明显的增温趋势。

Abstract:

In order to study the characteristic and law of temperature changes in nearly 40 years of Heze city, and provide scientific basis for the agricultural production and climatic resource zoning, this paper analyzed the multiple-time scale characteristic of temperature change and the mutability of Heze. Based on the data of season average temperature, annual maximum and minimum temperature, and the number of high temperature and low temperature days of Heze meteorological station from 1971 to 2010, the linear regression method, polynomial linear fitting method, variation coefficient method, significance test method, and the Mann-Kendall test method for the mutability were adopted in this study. The results showed that: (1) There was a significant increasing trend for the annual average temperature for recent 40 years and the linear heating rate was 0.36℃/10a; (2) There was a significant increase trend for the average four seasons temperature, among which the winter heating up was the most significant and its linear increasing speed was 0.54℃/10a, autumn and spring were the next two heating up seasons, and summer was the minimum season; (3) The highest temperature increased linearly at the rate of 0.13℃/10a, while the minimum temperature increased linearly at the rate of 0.587℃/10a. The warming trend of the highest temperature was markedly lower than that of the lowest temperature and there was an obvious asymmetry for their tendency rates and mutation rates; (4) The number of high temperature days (35℃) increased at the rate of 1.09d/10a while the number of low temperature days decreased at the rate of 0.81 d/10a. (5) The annual mean temperature, highest temperature and lowest temperature had abrupt changes in 1993, 1979 and 1982, respectively. There were obvious warming trends for the years' and seasons' average temperature, and the years' highest and the lowest temperature of Heze in recent 40 years.