棉花目标价格制度对南疆棉农生产行为影响研究——基于TPB和SEM的实证分析

THE EFFECT OF TARGET PRICE SYSTEM ON THE COTTON FARMERS' BEHAVIOR IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF XINJIANG ——EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON TPB AND SEM

关键词:  棉花目标价格制度 农户 计划行为理论 行为 影响因素

Key words:  target price system of cotton  farmers household  behavior  Theory of Planned Behavior  influential factors

摘要:

［目的］为了推进农业供给侧结构性改革，实现新疆棉花产业提质增效和转型升级，研究棉花目标价格制度对新疆南疆棉农生产行为的影响。［方法］基于计划行为理论（TPB），以新疆南疆巴州、阿克苏地区、喀什地区3个主要产棉地州6个县（市）12个乡（镇）的248个农户调查数据为样本，采用结构方程模型（SEM）分析棉花目标价格制度实施以来农户植棉行为变化的影响因素。［结果］（1）农户植棉的行为意愿与生产行为有显著正相关，农户改变植棉的行为意愿越强烈，对生产行为变化的影响程度就越大；（2）农户的行为态度、主观规范以及农户感知行为控制与其行为意愿亦有显著正相关，并交互影响；（3）南疆农民对棉花目标价格制度的实施总体满意程度较高。［结论］棉花目标价格制度政策引导南疆棉农植棉行为向适度规模、提质量、重效益、合作经营的方向发展。

Abstract:

In order to improve the structural reform of supply-side and to realize the quality-improvement and benefit-increase for cotton industry in Xinjiang, this paper studied on the influence of target price system on the cotton farmers' planting behavior in southern part of Xinjiang. Using the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), based on the survey data of 248 scattered households, from 12 towns of 6 counties in three major cotton producing areas in the southern part of Xinjiang, it analyzed the influential factors of cotton farmers planting behavior changes after adopting the cotton target price system by the structural equation model (SEM). The results showed: (1) there was a significant positive correlation between the behavioral intention and the production behavior of cotton plantation. (2) The behavior attitude, subjective norm and the behavioral intention of farmers had significant positive correlation and interaction effects. (3) Farmers in southern Xinjiang had a higher overall satisfaction on the implementation of cotton target price system. The cotton target price system played a leading role in the development of the farmers' behaviors to moderate scale, quality improvement, benefit, and cooperative management.