2003~2015年河南省粮食增产格局与贡献因素研究

SPATIAL-TEMPORAL PATTERNS AND CONTRIBUTION FACTORS OF HENAN′S GRAIN OUTPUT INCREASE DURING 2003~2015

关键词:  粮食生产粮食增产增产格局贡献因素河南省

Key words:  grain production  grain output increase  spatial-temporal patterns of grain output increase  contribution factors  Henan province

摘要:

［目的］2003~2015年河南省粮食生产实现了“十二连增”，为保障全国粮食供应和粮食安全发挥了重要作用，理清12年来河南省粮食增产因素与地域格局，可为河南省调整农业政策，进一步保持和提升粮食产量提供依据。［方法］基于2003~2015年河南省粮食作物播种面积、产量等数据，运用数理统计和GIS空间分析方法测算了河南省粮食增产的作物和地市贡献，以及耕地面积和单产对粮食增产的贡献率，并对各地市的增产作物和贡献因素进行了分析。［结果］河南省粮食产量实现“十二连增”主要得益于河南传统粮食作物玉米和小麦的增产，二者贡献率达9192%，小麦贡献稍大于玉米； 单位面积产量的提升对于河南省粮食“十二连增”的贡献要大于播种面积的增加； 两大粮食作物小麦和玉米的增产主要得益于单产的提升； 12年来，河南省18个地市粮食产量都是增产状态，豫东南地区的南阳、商丘、信阳、周口和驻马店5地市为河南省粮食增产的主力。［结论］未来河南省需要在稳定粮食播种面积的基础上，进一步提高粮食作物的单产水平来稳定和提升其粮食生产能力和增长潜力。

Abstract:

From 2003 to 2015, the grain production in Henan province had achieved twelve-year consecutive increase, which played an important role in ensuring the national food supply and national food security. By analyzing the spatial-temporal patterns and driving factors of grain production in Henan province, we can make a correct agriculture policy to maintain and improve the grain production capacity. Based on the data of planted area and yield of grain crops in Henan province from 2003 to 2015, the contributors of grain output increase and their contribution rates from crops, yield per unit area and the planted area were calculated and analyzed by means of mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis.The results showed that the output growth of wheat and maize (which are traditional grain crops in Henan Province) were the main reason of the grain output growth at the provincial level, whose contribution rate in the total grain output growth were 91.92%,and the wheat had a higher contribution rate than maize;the grain output growth caused by the promotion of yield per unit area was more than that caused by the expansion of planted area; the output growth of wheat and maize were mainly due to the yield per unit area; the grain output growth appeared in all cities of Henan provinces during the past twelve years, but the main markets for grain production were 5 cities, including Nanyang, Shangqiu, Xinyang, Zhoukou and Zhumadian, which were mainly located in southeastern Henan.Therefore, on the basis of stabilizing the sown area of grain crops, further efforts should be made to improve the yield per unit area to stabilize and increase grain production capacity and growth potential.