新型城镇化发展水平评价及其空间特征分析*——以江苏省常州市为例

EVALUATION OF NEW URBANIZATION DEVELOPMENT LEVEL AND ANALYSIS ON ITS SPATIAL CHARACTERISTICS*——A CASE STUDY IN CHANGZHOU CITY OF JIANGSU PROVINCE

关键词:  新型城镇化时空特征评价全局主成分分析法熵权法常州

Key words:  new urbanization  temporal and spatial characteristics  evaluate  global principal component analysis  entropy weight method  Changzhou of Jiangsu province

摘要:

［目的］分析江苏省常州市及各区、县新型城镇化发展水平，建立新型城镇化发展水平评价指标体系，从人口城镇化、经济生态化、社会城镇化、生态城镇化等4个方面共确定13个评价指标进行深入研究，以便为常州市新型城镇化发展现阶段存在的问题提供相关建议。［方法］依据科学性、可操作性等原则及理论分析与频度研究相结合的方法进行评价指标的获取与筛选，运用全局主成分分析法与熵权法相结合的综合确权法确定指标权重，最大限度提高研究结果的精确度，并得出影响常州市新型城镇化发展水平的主要指标。［结果］常州市新型城镇化发展水平由“良好”向“较好”转化，最终优化为“优秀”，优化趋势遥遥领先，各区、县新型城镇化发展水平及优化趋势差异性明显，总体来看金坛区、溧阳市发展水平较好，钟楼区与武进区发展水平不理想，天宁区、金坛区及新北区新型城镇化优化趋势紧跟中心城市常州市。［结论］常州市新型城镇化发展水平呈逐步上升趋势，发展前景较好，建成区绿地覆盖率、工业废水达标率及社会消费品零售总额对常州市新型城镇化发展水平影响较大。

Abstract:

This paper analyzes the development level of new urbanization in downtown, districts and counties of Changzhou in Jiangsu province. The evaluation index system of new urbanization development level was established, and thirteen evaluation indexes were determined from four aspects (i.e. population urbanization, economic ecology, social urbanization and ecological urbanization) in order to provide suggestions of solving the problems in the development of the new urbanization in Changzhou. According to the principle of scientificity and operability, frequency statistics and theoretical analysis, the paper used them to obtain and screen the evaluation indexes. The comprehensive principal component analysis combined with entropy weight method was used to determine the weight of the index in order to maximize the accuracy of the research results, and draw the main indicators affecting the development level of new urbanization in Changzhou City. Changzhou new urbanization development level transformed was from "good" to "better", and finally turned out as was "excellent". And the optimization trend was far ahead. There were obvious difference of new urbanization development level among different districts and counties. Overall, the development level of Jintan and Liyang was well, and the development level of Zhonglou and Wujin district was not ideal. The new urbanization trend of Tianning district, Jintan district and Xinbei district closely followed the central city of Changzhou. In general, the development level of new urbanization in Changzhou showed a gradual upward trend, and the development prospects were very good; The results showed that the three important factors that affect the development level of new urbanization in Changzhou were the green coverage rate, the standard rate of industrial waste water and the total retail sales of social consumer goods in built-up areas.