闽侯县闲置农地生态安全评价研究

STUDY ON ECOLOGICAL SECURITY EVALUATION OF IDLE FARMLAND IN MINHOU COUNTY

关键词:  闲置农地分布特征生态安全评价多元线性回归模型闽侯县

Key words:  idle farmland  distribution characteristics  ecological security evaluation  multiple linear regression model  Minhou county

摘要:

［目的］根据闽侯县农用地闲置情况，结合当地社会经济及生态环境发展情况，深入分析闽侯县闲置农地的生态安全发展水平。［方法］建立闽侯县闲置农地生态安全评价指标体系，分别从农村垃圾处理点数量、财政支农资金、外部进入农村投资、农业生产总值、种粮补贴、自然灾害、农业技术水平、农村生物的多样性程度、农村家庭收入结构、农村生态补偿金额、农地的整理规模及环保支出占GDP比重共确定12个指标进行深入研究，运用普通最小二乘法对设计的多元线性回归模型进行回归，进一步对闽侯县闲置农地的生态安全水平进行评价。［结果］农村垃圾处理点数量、财政支农资金、种粮补贴、环保支出占GDP比重、生态补偿金额、生物多样性程度对闽侯县闲置农地生态安全水平起到促进作用，呈正相关趋势； 自然灾害则与闲置农地生态安全水平呈负相关趋势。［结论］整体看来，闽侯县闲置农地的生态安全水平主要受到当地经济、环境及生态基础因素的影响。

Abstract:

According to the idle situation of agricultural land in Minhou County，this paper analyzed the ecological security development level of idle farmland in Minhou county combined with the development of local society, economy and ecological environment. The evaluation index system of idle farmland ecological security in Minhou county was established.The study used 12 indictors to make the multiple linear regression analysis by using the least square method, and to evaluate the ecological security level of idle farmland in Minhou county. The indicators including farmers′ net income, fiscal expenditure, regional agricultural investment, animal husbandry and fishery output, per capita agricultural subsidies, natural disasters, agricultural technology level, the per capita arable land area, rural household income structure in rural areas, the number of health workers, urban-rural income difference and environmental protection expenditure proportion of GDP. The results showed that there were positive promoting effect of the amount of rural garbage disposal spot, finical support to agriculture, grain subsidies, environmental expenditure accounted for the proportion of GDP, ecological compensation, biodiversity on the ecological security level. And there were correlation relationship between them and the ecological security level.Natural disasters and ecological security have negative correlation with the ecological security level. Overall, the ecological security level of idle farmland in Minhou county is mainly affected by the local economy, environment and population.