基于主成分分析的山西省农业循环经济发展水平评价研究

STUDY ON EVALUATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT LEVEL OF AGRICULTURAL CIRCULAR ECONOMY IN SHANXI PROVINCE BASED ON PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS

关键词:  农业循环经济发展评价指标体系主成分分析法山西省

Key words:  agricultural circular economy  development evaluation  index system  principal component analysis (PCA)  Shanxi province

摘要:

［目的］农业循环经济是我国农业可持续发展的必由之路，对农业循环经济发展水平的评价是该领域研究的关键。［方法］构建包含社会、经济和生态效益的农业循环经济评价指标体系的基础上，运用主成分分析法结合线性回归方程对山西省2001～2016年农业循环经济发展水平进行评价和分析。［结果］（1）山西省农业循环经济发展水平的评价因素可归纳为生产资料集约水平、资源修复水平和土地集约水平3方面。（2）山西省农业循环经济在2001～2016年总体呈现上升趋势； 并分为两个发展阶段， 2001～2009年农业循环经济发展低水平阶段和2010～2016年农业循环经济发展上升阶段。（3）2010年之后山西省转变传统农业发展方式、实现农业循环经济取得一定成效，生产资料集约水平是促使山西省农业循环经济发展提升的主要动力。［结论］山西省转变传统农业发展方式，提升农业循环经济发展水平，使农业走可持续发展道路注重生产资料的集约是关键，可以从控制化肥、农药、农膜投入量，提升其有效利用系数等方面入手； 其次要提升资源修复水平，利用秸秆还田的形式增加废弃物利用率，增加水土流失治理面积； 并提高土地利用率。

Abstract:

Agricultural circular economy is the only way for the sustainable development of agriculture in China. The evaluation of the development level of agricultural circular economy is the key. Based on the evaluation index system of agricultural circular economy including social, economic and ecological benefits, the principal component analysis method was used to evaluate and analyze the development level of agricultural recycling economy in Shanxi province from 2001 to 2016. The evaluation factors of the development level of agricultural recycling economy can be summarized as three aspects: the level of production data intensive, the level of resource restoration and the level of land consolidation. Shanxi's agricultural recycling economy generally showed an upward trend from 2001 to 2016; it was divided into two development stages: the low level stage of agricultural circular economy development from 2001 to 2009 and the stage of increasing agricultural circular economy development from 2010 to 2016. After 2010, Shanxi Province had achieved certain results in transforming traditional agricultural development methods and realizing agricultural recycling economy. The intensive production data was the main driving force for the development of the agricultural circular economy. Shanxi province changed the traditional agriculture development mode, improved the level of agricultural recycling economy, made agriculture take the road of sustainable development and paid attention to the intensive production data. It was the key to control the input of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural film, and improve its effective utilization coefficient. In addition, it needed to improve the level of resource restoration, use straw to return waste to increase the utilization rate of waste, increase the area of water and soil erosion control, and increase land utilization.