近10年长江经济带多尺度耕地利用变化特征

MULTI LEVEL CHARACTERISTICS OF CROPLAND USE CHANGE IN THE YANGTZE RIVER ECONOMIC BELT DURING THE PAST DECADE

关键词:  耕地利用变化特征多尺度合作博弈赋权法长江经济带

Key words:  cropland use  change characteristics  multi level  weights by Cooperative Games  the Yangtze River Economic Belt

摘要:

［目的］研究长江经济带耕地利用特征及其变化规律，辅助跨区域耕地保护与管理、促进农业可持续发展。［方法］基于合作博弈赋权法的多指标综合评价法，利用耕地规模、投入和产出指数，分析长江经济带近10年多空间尺度变化特征。［结果］（1）2005～2015年期间长江经济带耕地规模指数、投入强度、产出能力均呈现增长态势，增长比例分别为898%、12427%、1881%。（2）长江经济带不同尺度耕地利用变化特征存在显著差异。上游耕地规模指数增长2026%，中游地区耕地投入强度增长明显，下游地区耕地规模指数下降386%，但耕地产出能力提升显著。从省域尺度上来看，“云南—贵州—湖南—湖北”一带耕地规模指数增加明显，云南、安徽、贵州和四川4省耕地投入强度的涨幅超20%，四川、安徽、江西、江苏省耕地产出能力增长明显。地级及以上城市尺度耕地规模指数、投入强度和产出能力呈“大范围增长，局部小幅降低”格局。（3）地级及以上尺度耕地规模指数、投入强度和产出能力变动关系错位明显。［结论］大区域多尺度耕地利用变化特征对比分析，有助于进一步理解区域耕地利用变化的深层次动力机制，是有效推进跨区域耕地利用与保护、统筹安排农业发展布局和助力流域乡村振兴的重要参考。

Abstract:

This study estimated the cropland use characteristics and their dynamics in the Yangtze River Economic Belt during the past decade, to promote effective regional cropland management and agricultural sustainability. Based on the framework by weights derived from Cooperative Games, the scale, input density and output capability of cropland in the Yangtze River Economic Belt during 2005-2015 were estimated at varied levels. Results indicated that (I) during 2005-2015, the area index, input density and output capability of cropland in the Yangtze River Economic Belt increased by 8.98%, 124.27%, and 18.81%, respectively; (II) the characteristics of cropland use dynamics in the Yangtze River Economic Belt varied at different levels. Specifically, the upper reaches got huge increase of 20.26% in cropland scale index, while the middle reaches generated growing input density from overall perspective. Lower reaches observed a decrease of 3.86% in scale index, but obtained significant growth in output capability of cropland. The cropland scale index significantly increased along "Yunnan Guizhou Hubei Hunan" belt. Yunnan, Anhui, Guizhou and Sichuan provinces had largest increase over 20% in cropland input density. Sichuan, Anhui, Jiangxi and Jiangsu provinces showed great increase in cropland output capability. Obvious agglomerations of zones at local city level witnessing increased in scale index, input density and output capability in cropland use were generated in the Yangtze River Economic Belt taking from local city perspective. Meanwhile, small decrease for all the employed metrics were also observed in several regions in the Yangtze River Economic Belt; (III) further, unsynchronized changes of cropland scale, input density and output capability were largely observed from the perspective of local city. It concluded that, dynamic cropland use and its mechanisms in large scale regions at multiple levels were essential for inherent dynamic patches of cropland use transition and services for regional cropland conservation actions, as well as agricultural sustainability.