中国海外耕地投资的区位特征及其影响因素*——基于2000—2016年土地矩阵网络数据

THE LOCATION CHARACTERISTICS AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF CHINA′S OVERSEAS ARABLE LAND INVESTMENT*——BASED ON THE 2000—2016 LAND MATRIX NETWORK DATA

关键词:  海外耕地投资区位特征影响因素比较优势投资效率

Key words:  overseas arable land investment  location characteristics  influencing factors  comparative advantages  investment efficiency

摘要:

［目的］分析中国海外耕地投资的区位特征及其影响因素，以促进我国海外耕地投资的合理布局，提高农业投资效率。［方法］以2000—2016年中国137宗海外耕地投资项目及其所涉及的35个东道国作为研究样本，运用Spearman相关分析方法，分别以耕地投资面积和耕地投资项目数量作因变量，研究其与各影响因素的相关关系，并用对应分析法进一步探究各东道国的相对优势。［结果］（1）我国海外耕地投资区域集中在东南亚且由周边国家向外扩展，被投资耕地用途多样，投资规模自2004年开始急剧上升，近年来呈下降趋势。（2）我国海外耕地投资以效率寻求型和市场寻求型为主，倾向于资源丰富、与我国距离较近、制度相似、经济关系良好但发展水平不高的国家。（3）根据各地区的比较优势，亚洲国家适合效率寻求型和市场寻求型的企业投资，欧洲和美洲国家适合资源寻求型和战略资产寻求型的企业投资，非洲国家适合资源寻求型、效率寻求型和市场寻求型的企业投资。［结论］中国农业企业应结合企业投资目标和各地区的比较优势，合理选择投资区位，适时转变投资策略与模式，积极防范海外耕地投资过程中的自然风险、政治环境风险和道德风险等，以提高投资效果。

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper was to analyze the location characteristics and influencing factors of China′s overseas arable land investment, in order to promote the rational distribution of overseas arable land investment, increase the efficiency of agricultural investment, and ensure national food security. By selecting 137 overseas arable land investment projects in China from 2000 to 2016 and the 35 host countries involved as research samples, using the Spearman correlation analysis method, taking the arable land investment area and the number of arable land investment projects as the dependent variables, the article analyzed its correlation with various influencing factors and further explore the relative advantages of each host country through the corresponding analysis method. The results showed that (1) From the inter continental level to the national level, China′s overseas arable land investment showed obvious regional concentration, and it was mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia where the conditions of water and heat are good, geographic distances are close to our country, and cultural similarity is high. The cultivated land used for investment had various purposes, including the cultivation of food and non food agricultural products, the development of forestry, animal husbandry, and biofuels. The scale of investment had sharply increased since 2004 and had declined in recent years. (2) As China′s overseas arable land investment was concentrated in Southeast Asian countries, and the main advantage of the region was low labor costs and large market size. So China′s overseas arable land investment type were mainly based on efficiency seeking and market seeking, and tended to the countries with abundant resources, close distances, similar systems, and good economic relations with China but low level of development. (3) Based on the comparative advantages of each region, Asian countries were suitable for the enterprise that aimed at efficiency seeking and market seeking. European and American countries were suitable for the enterprise that aimed at resource seeking and strategic asset seeking. African countries were suitable for the enterprise that aimed at resource seeking, efficiency seeking, and markets seeking. Finally, Chinese agribusinesses should combine its investment objectives and comparative advantages of each region, rationally select investment locations, transform investment strategies and models at the right time. From the perspective of investment location, we should expand investment in neighboring countries and gradually enter the markets of developed countries. From the perspective of investment model, changes should be made to the patterns of technology export, capital mergers and acquisitions, etc. At the same time, agribusinesses should actively guard against natural risks, political environmental risks, and moral risks in overseas arable land investments in order to improve investment efficiency.