基于索洛余值法的马铃薯全要素生产率探析

MEASUREMENT AND ANALYSIS ON TFP OF POTATOES BASED ON SOLOW′S RESIDUAL METHOD

关键词:  马铃薯索洛余值全要素生产率生产要素科技进步

Key words:  potatoes  Solow residual value  total factor productivity  production factors  scientific and technological progress

摘要:

［目的］根据2011—2016年的全国农产品成本收益数据，从物质资料投入、劳动力投入和技术投入等方面确定5个指标对全国16个省（区、市）的马铃薯全要素生产率的变动进行研究。［方法］运用含参数的索洛余值法，构建柯布道格拉斯生产函数模拟我国马铃薯生产的投入和产出之间的关系，通过回归分析得到各个生产要素对马铃薯生产的贡献大小和影响程度。［结果］（1）2012—2016年，我国马铃薯全要素生产率变化呈“N”型，未来有上升趋势； （2）在规模报酬不变的假定条件下，广义的科技进步对马铃薯单产的贡献率高达57%，肥料和劳动力投入的弹性分别为028和015，广义的科技进步对马铃薯生产影响十分显著； （3）我国马铃薯TFP变化区域差异明显。［结论］基于以上研究提出了提高肥料的科技含量、加速马铃薯经营主体的人力资本积累、强化政策扶持与制度建设和不断推进科技创新等政策性建议。

Abstract:

According to the 2011—2016 national agricultural products cost benefit data, 5 indicators were identified from the aspects of material input, labor input and technology input to study the total factor productivity of potato in 16 provinces of China. The Cobb Douglas production function was used to simulate the relationship between input and output of potato production in China by using the parameter of Solow residual value method. The contribution and influence of various production factors on potato production were obtained by regression analysis. The result showed that (1) In 2012—2016, the total factor productivity of potato in China had shown a " N " type, and there was an upward trend in the future; (2) Under the assumption that the scale return was constant, the contribution rate of the generalized scientific and technological progress to the potato yield was up to 57%, the elasticity of the fertilizer and labor input was 0.28 and 0.15, respectively. The generalized scientific and technological progress had a significant impact on potato production; (3) the regional variation of TFP of Chinese potato was obvious. Based on the above research, some policy suggestions were put forward to improve the scientific and technological content of fertilizer, accelerate the accumulation of human capital, strengthen the policy support and system construction, and promote the innovation of science and technology.