基于GM（1， 1）模型的中国小杂粮种植面积预测分析

GM (1,1) MODEL BASED SOWN AREA PREDICTION OF MINOR GRAINS IN CHINA

关键词:  小杂粮种植面积GM（1， 1）模型预测种植业结构调整

Key words:  minor grains  sown Area  GM(1,1)Model  prediction  planting structure adjustment

摘要:

［目的］小杂粮在调整我国居民粮食消费结构以及改善膳食营养中始终占据着重要地位。科学预测全国小杂粮的种植面积，可为国家调整种植业结构、优化绿色优质产品供给、稳定小杂粮市场定价、提高农民收入提供依据。［方法］文章基于近20年全国小杂粮种植面积数据，建立灰色GM（1， 1）预测模型，预测了未来10年中国小杂粮的种植面积。［结果］该预测模型预测精度较高，为1级，可用于我国小杂粮种植面积的中长期预测； 预测结果显示，未来10年我国小杂粮的种植面积处于下降的态势。［结论］我国小杂粮播种面积逐年减少对我国绿色优质农产品供给和种植业结构调整可能会产生不利的影响。从长期看，为了扭转我国小杂粮种植面积下降的局面，要从政策导向、产业扶持（基础设施、补贴、信贷优惠）、科技支撑（良种引入、种植技术）、仓储以及市场等方面发力，从而保障我国小杂粮产业持续健康的发展。

Abstract:

Minor grains have always occupied an important position in adjusting China′s food consumption structure and improving dietary nutrition. The scientific prediction of the sown area of minor grains in the whole country can provide an important reference for the country to adjust planting industry structure, optimize the supply of green and high quality products, stabilize the market pricing of small and coarse grain markets, and improve farmers′ income. Based on data of sown area of minor grains in the past 20 years, a grey GM (1,1) prediction model was established to predict future minor grains area. The results showed that the accuracy of the prediction model was high, achieving to the first level，and that could be used for medium or long term prediction of small grain crops sown area in China. And in the next 10 years, the predicted results indicated that the sown area of China′s minor grains would be in a declining trend. The reduction in the sown area in China may negatively affect the supply of green and high quality agricultural products and the structural adjustment of crop production in China. From a long term perspective, in order to reverse the decline in the sown area of China′s minor grains and ensure the healthy and sustainable development of China′s minor grains industry, supports of policy guidance, industrial development（infrastructure, subsidies, credit incentives）, science and technology（improved variety, planting technology）, warehousing, and markets are all needed.