元谋县干热气候评价及特征分析

EVALUATION OF THE DRY HOT CLIMATE RESOURCE AND ANALYSIS ON IT′S CHARACTERISTICS IN YUANMOU

关键词:  元谋县干热河谷气候主成分分析Mann Kendall突变检验小波周期分析

Key words:  Yuanmou  dry hot valleys climate  principal component  Mann Kendall  wavelet analysis

摘要:

［目的］元谋是云南金沙江流域区典型的干热河谷盆地，气候干湿分明、热量充足、光日照丰富，是云南重要的冬春蔬菜种植、出口，热带水果引、试种植和国内知名蔬菜、粮食作物冬季繁制种及科学研究基地。为客观评价元谋县干热气候及变化特征。［方法］选取云南125个县市的气温、降水、日照、相对湿度做气象因子的主成分分析和元谋县近54年来的气温、降水做气候倾向、Mann Kendall突变检验和小波周期分析。［结果］（1）元谋是云南省的高热量、强光日照区、最干燥区和光热资源高效利用区，热量因子主成分得分在滇中河谷盆地及以北最高，光日照因子主成分得分居云南省最高，干湿因子主成分得分为云南省最低。（2）年降水量趋势变化不明显-064mm/年，突变发生在1963和2010年， 2001年后年降水量减少趋势变化明显，变化周期依次为26年、16年、2—4年。（3）长夏季平均气温有-0009℃/年的较明显趋势变化，突变主要发生在20世纪70年代中期前，变化周期依次为25年、17年、4—6年； 最冷时段平均最低气温有-0036℃/年的明显趋势变化，突变发生在1971年之前，变化周期依次为19年、4—6年； 11—2月（冷时段）时段平均气温变化周期依次为8年、3年； 1991～2010年间，日最低气温低于0℃的日数较前30年增加03d/年、低于4℃的日数增加了04d/年，日最高气温高于38℃的日数减少了3d/年，日平均气温在25～30℃之间的日数减少了25d/年； 各统计时段气温在2009年由明显下降转为明显上升。［结论］元谋县空气干燥，光热资源在云南滇中河谷及以北地区最丰富； 年降水量、冷时段气温、最低气温和长夏时段气温均呈下降或微降趋势变化，年际间有明显的突变点和变化周期，其中16—19年和4—6年的变化周期均在年降水量和各个统计时段气温的周期变化中均呈现，极端高温日数减少、低温日数增加； 受2009—2013年云南持续干旱气候影响，各个统计时段气温均呈现反相变化。

Abstract:

Yuanmou was typical dry hot valleys basin in Jinsha river valley area in Yunnan. Selected the temperature, precipitation, sunshine and relative humidity of 125 counties and cities in Yunnan were selected as the principal component analysis of meteorological factors and the temperature, precipitation, climate tendency, Mann Kendall mutation test and wavelet cycle analysis of Yuanmou County in the past 54 years, the paper objectively evaluated dry hot climate resources and climate characteristics of Yuanmou. The Results showed that（1）Yuanmou was the highest quantity of heat, the most intense, the most dry and heat resource efficient use of the region in Yunnan province. The score of principal component of heat factor was the highest in the valley basin and north of Yunnan Province, the score of principal component of sunshine factor was the highest in Yunnan Province, and the score of principal component of dry and wet factor was the lowest in Yunnan Province.（2）The trend of annual precipitation change was not obvious by -0.64 mm/year, mutations occurred in 1963 and 2010, after 2001, the annual precipitation reduction trend changed significantly, and the change cycle was 26 years, 16 years, and 2 years-4 years. （3）The long summer (during the March to October ) average temperature had a relatively obvious trend change of -0.009℃/year, the abrupt change mainly occured before the midle of 1970s，and the change cycle was s 25 years, 17 years, 4~6 years in turn; the average minimum temperature in the coldest period had an obvious trend change of -0.036℃/year, the abrupt change occured before 1971, and the change cycle was 19 years, 4~6 years in turn. From January to February (cold period) the average temperature change period was 8 years and 3 years in turn; from 1991 to 2010, the number of days with the lowest daily temperature below 0.3 d/year and the number below 4℃ increased by 0.4 d/year, the number of days with the highest daily temperature above 38℃ decreased by 3 d/year, and the number of days with the average daily temperature between 25 and 30℃ decreased by 2.5 d/year. In 2009, the air temperature changed from a marked decline to a marked increase in all statistical periods. In Yuanmou County, the air was dry and the solar and thermal resources were the most abundant in the central Yunnan Valley and the north of Yunnan Province. The annual precipitation, air temperature in cold season, the minimum air temperature and air temperature in long summer showed a downward or slightly downward trend, and there were obvious abrupt change points and change cycles between years, of which the change periods of 16~19 years and 4~6 years are all presented in the annual precipitation and the periodic changes of temperature in each statistical period, the number of extreme high temperature days decreased, and the number of low temperature days increased. Affected by the persistent drought climate in Yunnan from 2009 to 2013, the temperature in each statistical period showed an inverse change.