基于主成分分析法的海东市农业现代化发展水平评价研究

RESEARCH ON EVALUATION OF AGRICULTURAL MODERNIZATION DEVELOPMENT LEVEL OF HAIDONG CITY BASED ON PRINCIPAL COMPENT ANALYSIS METHOD

关键词:  农业现代化指标体系动态评价主成分分析法海东

Key words:  agricultural modernization  indicator system  dynamic evaluation  principal component analysis

摘要:

［目的］揭示青海省海东市自西部大开发以来农业现代化水平的动态变化，分析农业现代化发展的进程及影响因素，以促使海东市农业现代化发展健康发展。［方法］调查2000—2016年青海省海东市及其2区4县农业现代化发展历程，建立一个包括5个一级指标、16个二级指标的评价指标体系，运用主成分分析方法对青海省海东市及其各区县农业现代化发展水平进行动态评价。［结果］海东市农业现代化发展水平总体呈上升趋势； 各主成分对海东市农业现代化发展水平的影响不同； 海东市各区县农业现代化发展水平不均衡。［结论］海东市农业现代化发展水平提升的对策：（1）调整产业结构，提高农业产出水平； （2）平衡区域发展差异，实现可持续发展； （3）加大科技投入，提高农业信息化水平。

Abstract:

To reveal the dynamic changes of agricultural modernization level in Haidong city since China Great Western Development was launched in Qinghai province, and to analyze the process and influencing factors of the development of agricultural modernization in order to promote the healthy development of agricultural modernization in Haidong city. By investigating the agricultural modernization development in four counties, two districts of Haidong city and the city itself in 2016, the study established an evaluation indicator system including five first-level indicators and sixteen second-level indicators. It used the main component analysis method to evaluate dynamically the development level of agricultural modernization in Haidong city and its districts and counties. The results showed that the comprehensive score of agricultural modernization in Haidong city had been raised from -7.750 in 2000 to 8.339 in 2016 and had shown continuous upward trend since China Great Western Development was launched. Besides, in 2009 of the "11th Five-Year Plan", the comprehensive score had changed from being negative to positive, thus making a breakthrough. Agricultural mechanization and industrialization factor F1 played a decisive role in development of agricultural modernization; main components like agricultural informatization and agricultural yield factor as well as scientific factor of agricultural production technology have made less contribution. Haidong city should fully depend on agricultural science to boost the agricultural modernization development. The highest and lowest comprehensive score of agricultural modernization development happened in Ledu district and Hualong county, being 14.591 and 8.740 respectively, a difference of 5.851. This indicated that the agricultural modernization development in Haidong city should be suited to local conditions and be differentiated. The development of agricultural modernization in Haidong city of Qinghai province was evaluated by principal component analysis. From the evaluation results, the overall development trend of agricultural modernization in Haidong city was good, but there were differences in the development level of agricultural modernization among districts and counties. As the above results, the suggestions about solving the problems with agricultural modernization development level in Haidong city were presented. The Evaluation of agricultural modernization development in Haidong city, Qinghai province was conducted with main component analysis approach. As indicated by the evaluation results, overall agricultural modernization shows sound development momentum, but the development in different districts and counties is differentiated. Relevant policy suggestions about solving the problems with agricultural modernization development level in Haidong city are presented.