基于CGE模型的农业转移人口市民化对农业经济的影响研究

RESEARCH ON THE IMPACT OF URBANIZATION OF RURAL MIGRANT LABORS ON AGRICULTURAL ECONOMY BASED ON CGE MODEL

关键词:  城镇化宏观经济农业经济农村劳动力转移一般均衡模型农业现代化

Key words:  urbanization  macroeconomics  agricultural economy  rural labor migrant  general equilibrium model  agricultural modernization

摘要:

［目的］农业转移人口市民化关系到我国全面建成小康社会的成败，通过分析农业转移人口市民化对我国宏观经济和农业部门经济发展的具体影响，为农业转移人口市民化相关政策的顶层设计提供参考。［方法］文章在借鉴以往研究的基础上，以瓦尔拉斯一般均衡理论为基础，构建了中国农业一般均衡模型，研究农业转移人口不断转变为城镇居民，促使城镇化率每年提高087个百分点对中国宏观经济和农业部门经济发展的具体影响。［结果］农业转移人口不断转变为城镇居民，拉动了投资的增长，促使土地租金、真实GDP、实际工资、家庭可支配收入出现不同程度的提高，促进家庭消费和政府消费的增加。同时，农业转移人口市民化进程的不断推进，也使得CPI、GDP价格指数、出口价格指数出现不同程度地降低。［结论］农业转移人口市民化的发展整体上对中国宏观经济的发展产生了积极的影响，为了更好地促进农业转移人口市民化的发展，要继续加快推动农业现代化发展进程，协调好农业转移人口市民化与乡村振兴战略之间的关系。同时，在推进以提升质量和效益为核心的农业转移人口市民化的进程中，要不断完善配套的社会保障体系的建设。

Abstract:

The urbanization of rural migrant labors is related to the success or failure of building a well off society in China. Through analysis of the specific impact of the rural migrant labors on China′s macroeconomics and the economic development of the agricultural sector, it provides a reference for the top level design of policies related to the urbanization of rural migrant labors. Based on the previous research and the Walras general equilibrium theory, this paper constructed a general equilibrium model of China′s agriculture, and studied the shift of the rural migrant labors into urban residents which promoted the urbanization rate to increase by 0.87 percentage points annually, the specific impact on China′s macroeconomic and agricultural sector economic development. The shift of agricultural population to urban residents had continuously spurred the growth of investment, which had led to an increase in land rents, real GDP, real wages, and household disposable income to varying degrees, and promoted the increase in household consumption and government consumption. At the same time, the continuous advancement of the urbanization process of the rural migrant labors had also caused the CPI, the GDP price index, and the export price index to decrease in different degrees. The development of urbanization of rural migrant labors had a positive impact on China′s macroeconomic development as a whole. In order to promote the development of the urbanization of rural migrant labors, it is necessary to continue to accelerate the development of agricultural modernization and coordinate the relationship between the urbanization of rural migrant labors and the strategy of rural revitalization. At the same time, in the process of promoting the urbanization of rural migrant labors with the core of improving quality and efficiency, it is necessary to continuously improve the construction of the supporting social security system.