粮食安全与农业结构调整水平的协整分析*——以广东省为例

CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS OF GRAIN SECURITY AND AGRICULTURAL STRUCTURE ADJUSTMENT*——TAKING GUANGDONG AS AN EXAMPLE

关键词:  粮食安全农业结构调整协整分析因果分析均衡关系

Key words:  grain security  agricultural structure adjustment  Co integrationanalysis  causal analysis  balanced relationship

摘要:

［目的］实现我国粮食安全与农业结构调整之间（即粮食增产和农民增收）关系的协调，较长时间以来是学界、政界关注的重要议题，但定量分析两者之间内在依存关系的研究一直欠缺。［方法］文章采用协整分析及Granger因果关系检验方法，以广东为例，对我国粮食安全（用粮食总产量来衡量）与农业结构调整水平之间的协整性及因果关系进行了研究。［结果］广东粮食总产量与反映农业结构调整水平的3个指标之间均存在长期均衡关系，且农作物播种面积中粮食作物面积对广东粮食总产量影响最大，每下降1%，粮食总产量下降0659 548%。短期内，反映农业结构调整水平的3个指标对广东粮食总产量的影响均存在波动，但由短期偏离拉向长期均衡的牵动作用均较弱。Granger因果关系检验表明农业在国民经济中的比重、农作物播种面积中粮食作物面积早期对广东粮食总产量产生单向影响，但影响程度相对较弱。［结论］提出应从农业结构调整以外的因素着手提高我国粮食安全水平，并通过调整农业区域结构去缓解我国粮食供求市场的结构性矛盾。

Abstract:

Coordination between China′s grain security and agricultural structure adjustment, in other words, how to increase the grain output and increase the income of the farmers simultaneously, has been an important topic for academic and political attention for a long time. However, the quantitative analysis of the interdependent relationship between them is still very fragmentary. Taking Guangdong as an example, this paper mainly discussed the coordination and causality relations between China′s grain security(In terms of total grain output) and the level of agricultural structure adjustment based on co integration analysis and Granger causality test.The result shows that there is a long range balanced relation between the output of cereals in Guangdong and three indicators reflecting the level of agricultural structure adjustment; the cereals sown area among cropshas the greatest influence on the cereals output of Guangdong province, which means the cereals output decreasing 0659548 % as the cereals sown area reducing 1%. On the other hand, the influence of three indicators reflecting the level of agricultural structure adjustment on the cereals output of Guangdong province appears to be fluctuated in a short term, but the affecting effect for long term balance pulled by short term deviation appears to be weak as a whole. Furthermore, Granger causality relations test indicates that both the percentage of agriculture in national economy and the cereals sown area among crops exerts one way influence on the cereals output of Guangdong province at the early stage, but the level of such influence appears to be comparably weak.Finally, it is suggested that we should pay attention to other factors rather than agricultural structure adjustment, such as adjusting the regional structure of agriculture to alleviate the structural contradiction of grain supply and demand market in China.