中国小麦主产区生产效率时空演变特征分析

SPATIO TEMPORAL FEATURE OF WHEAT PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY IN MAIN PRODUCING PROVINCES OF CHINA

关键词:  小麦生产效率时空异质性数据包络分析Malmquist指数探索性空间分析

Key words:  wheat  production efficiency  temporal and spatial heterogeneity  DEA  Malmquist Index  ESDA

摘要:

［目的］基于2006—2015年我国15个小麦主产省（区）小麦生产投入产出数据，对小麦主产区生产效率时空演变特征进行分析。［方法］利用数据包络分析（DEA）、Malmquist指数模型以及探索性空间分析（ESDA）对我国小麦生产效率演变的时空异质性进行研究。［结果］（1）在时间异质性方面，2006-2015年我国小麦主产区小麦生产的综合技术效率均值为0928，纯技术效率均值为0943，规模效率均值为0984，均未达到有效水平，主产区小麦全要素生产率变化指数介于0920和0977之间，全要素生产率的增长受到了技术进步更大的制约。（2）在空间异质性方面，不同省（区）在纯技术效率存在较为明显的空间异质性，而在规模效率方面则较为接近。在全要素生产率方面，超过半数的研究省（区）小麦全要素生产率呈现负增长的趋势。（3）在生产效率的空间相关性方面，我国小麦主产区的小麦生产效率整体上呈现出较为显著的空间集聚效应，相较于其他地区而言，黄淮海小麦优势区存在较为显著且稳定的空间正相关关系。［结论］因地制宜地发挥区域生产禀赋优势、提高小麦主产区技术的有效投入，是提高小麦生产效率的关键，同时，通过资源合理配置实现小麦生产的空间布局优化，是整体提升我国小麦生产效率、维护粮食市场稳定的关键。

Abstract:

Based on the data of input and output of 15 wheat producing areas in China from 2006 to 2015, the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of wheat production in China were analyzed. The temporal and spatial heterogeneity of wheat production efficiency evolution in China was studied by using data envelopment analysis (DEA), Malmquist index model and exploratory spatial analysis (ESDA). The results showed that (1) In terms of time heterogeneity, the average value of comprehensive technical efficiency of wheat production in China′s was 0.928, the average pure technical efficiency was 0.943 and the scale efficiency was 0.984. Besides, the growth of total factor productivity was constrained by technological progress. (2) In terms of spatial heterogeneity, there were obvious spatial heterogeneity in the pure technical efficiency of different provinces. In terms of total factor productivity, more than half of the total crop productivity in the provinces showed a negative growth trend. (3) In terms of the spatial correlation of production efficiency, the wheat production efficiency in the main wheat producing areas of China showed a significant spatial agglomeration effect. Compared with other areas, the dominant area of wheat in north China plain was more significant and stable of the spatial correlation. It is the key to improve the efficiency of wheat production by increasing the advantage of regional production endowment and improving the effective input of wheat main producing areas.