新疆西北部农户种植决策的Logistic模型分析*——以伊犁河谷察布查尔县为例

ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCING FACTORS OF FARMERS′ PLANTING DECISION BASED ON LOGISTIC MODEL IN NORTHWEST XINJIANG*——A CASE STUDY OF CHABUCHAR COUNTY IN ILI RIVER VALLEY

关键词:  农户种植决策Logistic模型影响因素察布查尔

Key words:  farmers  planting decisions  Logistic model  influencing factors  Chabuchar

摘要:

［目的］农户种植决策是诱发农业结构调整的微观基础，研究农户种植决策的影响因素，不仅有利于了解农业种植结构，也对该区域推进和深化农业结构调整，实现农业产业化、现代化具有重要的意义。［方法］文章基于新疆察布查尔县21个行政村228户农户的问卷调查数据，应用Logistic模型，从农户家庭特征、个体特征、生产特征及收入特征等4个方面实证分析了影响农户种植决策的主要因素。［结果］对农户种植决策行为影响显著的因素有家庭总人口、耕地面积、地形部位、总收入等，其中，耕地面积和地形部位对农户种植意愿有显著正向影响，而家庭总人口和总收入对农户种植意愿有显著负向影响； 常年从事农业劳动人数、户主文化水平、地块位置、地块总数以及对于农业技术服务态度没有通过检验，无法得出这几个变量与农户种植决策之间的关系。［结论］影响农户种植决策的因素除耕地面积、总收入、家庭总人口及地形部位外，还会受到政策、农户自身种植习惯、农业技术等影响，农户对农业技术知识的匮乏是影响该县农业结构调整的主要原因

Abstract:

Farmers′ planting decisionsare micro inducing factors of agricultural restructuring. Study on influencing factors of farmers′ planting decisions is not only helpful to understand the structure of the region′s agricultural planting, but also has a significantimportance to the region′s promoting and deepening agricultural restructuring as well as its realization of agricultural industrialization and modernization. Based on the survey data of 21 incorporated villages and 228 farmer households around Chabucharcounty in Xinjiang, the binary logistic regression model was used to analyzed the influencing factors of farmers′ planting decisions from four dimensions named farmer′s household characteristics, individualcharacteristics, productioncharacteristics and income characteristics. The results showed that the population of farmer′s household, the area of cultivated land, the terrain′s position and the total income of farmer′s household had significant influence on farmers′ planting decisions. Among these influencing factors, the area of cultivated land and the terrain′s position were significantly andpositively correlated with the willingness of farmers′ planting. While the population of farmers′ household and the total income of farmers′ household had significant and negative correlations with farmers′ planting willingness. Factors like the number of people working on farming throughout the year, the farmers′ educational level, the plot′s location, the total number of plots and farmers′ attitudes to agricultural technological services didn′t pass the empirical test, which meant the relationship between these factors and farmers′ planting decisions couldn′t be identified. Itconcluded that farmers′ planting decisionswere not only influenced by their area of cultivated land, total income, the population of household and the terrain′s position, but also affected by agricultural policies, their own planting customs and agricultural technologies. Farmers′ lack of knowledge on agricultural technology was the main influencing factor for the county′s agricultural restructuring.