长三角农民收入时空分异及驱动机制分析

FARMERS′ INCOME SPATIAL TEMPORAL DIFFERENTIATION AND DRIVING MECHANISM ANALYSIS IN THE YANGTZE RIVER DELTA

关键词:  农民收入时空分异驱动机制ESDATobit模型长三角

Key words:  farmers′ income  spatial temporaldifferentiation  driving mechanism  ESDA  Tobit model  the Yangtze river delta

摘要:

［目的］通过研究2000年以来长三角农民收入时空分异与驱动机制，为乡村振兴战略背景下长三角农民增收及城乡融合提供理论参考及实践借鉴。［方法］文章通过GIS ESDA模型揭示2000年以来长三角农民收入时空格局及分异特征，并运用Tobit回归模型分析长三角农民收入分异影响因素与驱动机制。［结果］（1）2000年以来长三角农民收入水平总体上呈现出持续上升态势，其中工资性收入是长三角农民收入结构中最重要来源。（2）长三角农民收入全局表现出“集聚式”空间关联； 局部农民收入H H关联区集聚在苏锡沪，并不断向杭州、嘉兴等地演化，L L关联区集聚在苏中地区扬州、泰州； 长三角农民收入空间关联格局自组织性越来越强，东南—西北方向上农民收入呈现“峰型”结构。（3）城镇化、产业结构、人力资本、农业科技进步及农业政策是影响研究期长三角农民收入时空分异的主要驱动力。［结论］从优化农村产业结构、推进特色小镇建设、提高农民职业技能及创新城乡融合发展制度等方面提出促进长三角地区农民持续增收、乡村振兴发展的政策建议。

Abstract:

Through the study of farmers′ income space differentiation and driving mechanismin theYangtze river delta since 2000, it can provide theoretical and practical reference for the development of rural areas in the context of rural revitalization. The study took the Yangtze river delta region as an example, and revealed the spatial temporal pattern of farmers′ income based on GIS ESDA model; the Tobit regression model was used to analyze the influencing factors and driving mechanism of farmers′income spatial temporal differentiation. The results showed that: the level of farmers′ income hadshowed a trend of continuous upward trend, the wage income was the most important source of the farmers′ income structure. The overall of the farmers′income showed the agglomerative spatial correlation;local farmers′ income in H H areaswere distributed in Suzhou, Wuxi, Shanghai, Hangzhou and Jiaxing,the L L areas were distributed in Yangzhou and Taizhou. The farmers′ income spatial correlation pattern tended to be more self organized, the northwest southeast direction appeared peak spatial distribution structure. Urbanization, industrial structure, human capital, agricultural science and technology progress and agricultural policy were the main driving forces of farmers′income spatial temporal differentiation. At last, it put forward policy suggestions to promote the growth of farmers′ incomefrom optimization of rural industrial structure, promotingcharacteristicsmall town construction, improving farmers′ vocational skills and innovation of urban and rural integration development system.