扬州市生态农业发展评价及预测研究

RESEARCH ON EVALUATION AND PREDICTION OF ECOLOGICAL AGRICULTURE DEVELOPMENT IN YANGZHOU CITY

关键词:  生态农业综合效益可持续发展协调预测

Key words:  ecological agriculture  comprehensive benefits  sustainable development  coordination  forecast

摘要:

［目的］农业是国民经济的基础产业，发展生态农业是实现农业经济稳步增长的重要途径，也是我国发展现代农业的战略选择。对生态农业的现状进行评估，以期以此为依据为今后的发展提供可行性建议。［方法］文章研究从经济效益、社会效益和生态效益3个方面构建了包含14个指标在内的扬州市生态农业发展评价指标体系，并采用熵权法和加权法综合评定2011—2016年该市生态农业发展的经济效益、社会效益和生态效益及综合效益得分，在此基础上采用GM（1， 1）灰色模型对2018—2027年扬州市生态农业的发展程度进行了预测。［结果］2011—2016年扬州市生态农业发展的社会效益呈持续增长态势， 2011—2015年经济效益呈上升趋势， 2016年经济效益明显下降。生态效益分别在2012年和2016年出现两次波动。总体来看， 2012—2015年扬州市生态农业发展的综合效益逐年递增， 2016年由于经济效益的急剧降低，导致综合效益下降。2018—2027年该市生态农业的发展水平一直保持可持续状态，且发展度在逐年递增。［结论］扬州市在今后的发展过程中应注重转变生产方式，积极调整农业生产模式，努力实现农产品的集约化生产。注重环境保护，实现化肥农药使用量零增长，达到经济效益与社会效益和生态效益协调增长。

Abstract:

Agriculture is the basic industry of the national economy. The development of ecological agriculture is an important way to achieve a steady growth of the agricultural economy. It is also a strategic choice for the development of modern agriculture in China. The status quo of ecological agriculture is evaluated to provide a feasible basis for future development. In this study, Yangzhou city ecological agriculture development evaluation index system including 14 indicators was constructed from three aspects: economic benefit, social benefit and ecological benefit. The entropy weight method and weighting method were used to comprehensively assess the city′s ecological agriculture includingeconomic benefit, social and ecological benefit from 2011 to 2016. Based on this, the GM (1,1) gray model was used to predict the development degree of ecological agriculture in Yangzhou city from 2018 to 2027. The social benefits of eco agricultural development in Yangzhou city continued to grow from 2011 to 2016. The economic benefits from 2011 to 2015 showed an upward trend, and the economic benefits in 2016 decreased significantly. Ecological benefits fluctuated twice in 2012 and 2016 respectively. Overall, the comprehensive benefits of ecological agricultural development in Yangzhou city increased year by year from 2012 to 2015, and the overall economic benefits declined due to the sharp decline in economic efficiency in 2016. From 2018 to 2027, the development level of ecological agriculture in the city had been kept in a sustainable state, and the degree of development had been increasing year by year. In the future development of Yangzhou city, we should pay attention to changing the mode of production, actively adjust the mode of agricultural production, and strive to achieve intensive production of agricultural products. Pay attention to environmental protection, achieve zero growth in the use of fertilizers and pesticides, and achieve a coordinated growth of economic and social benefits and ecological benefits.