基于DEA-Malmquist模型的中国粮食生产用水效率研究

STUDY ON WATER UTILIZATION EFFIEIENCY OF CHINA′S GRAIN PRODUCTION BASED ON DEA MALMQUIST MODEL

关键词:  粮食生产用水效率数据包络分析Malmquist指数时空差异

Key words:  grain production  water use efficiency  data envelopment analysis  Malmquist productivity index  temporal and spatial differences

摘要:

［目的］提高粮食用水效率是降低农业用水规模、缓解水资源供需矛盾的有效途径之一。通过测度中国31个省（市区）的粮食用水效率，揭示了其时间演变规律与空间分异特征。［方法］以中国31个省（市区）为研究样本，首先运用数据包络分析方法对2005年、2010年与2015年的粮食生产用水效率进行静态分析和评价，揭示各省（市区）粮食生产水资源投入松弛量，分析了中国东中西部地区的粮食生产用水效率的差异特征； 其次，采用各省（市区）2005—2015年的面板数据，运用Malmquist指数模型分析了中国粮食生产水资源全要素利用效率的时空演变趋势。［结果］中国大多数省（市区）粮食生产用水效率随着时间推移呈上升趋势，粮食生产技术进步是影响用水效率的关键因素； 多数省份粮食生产用水效率处于规模报酬递减阶段，近50%的省份粮食生产用水存在冗余，应适当减少粮食生产用水量； 从区域分布特征来看，中国粮食生产用水效率与区域经济发展水平及地理空间分布有关，与区域水资源丰沛程度负相关。［结论］国家应加大对粮食灌溉设施的技术投资，因地制宜优化粮食生产空间格局。

Abstract:

Improving water use efficiency of grain production is one of the most effective ways to save agricultural water and relieve the contradiction between water supply and its demand. To study of water use efficiency of grain production in the 31 provinces of China, the temporal evolution and spatial variation was revealed. In this study, 31 provinces (urban areas) in China were taken as research samples. Firstly, the data envelopment analysis (DEA) was used to analyze the water use efficiency of grain production in 2005, 2010 and 2015, revealing the slack input of water resources for grain production in each province (urban areas), and analyzing the water use efficiency of grain production in the eastern, central and western regions of China. Secondly, based on the panel data of each province (city) from 2005 to 2015, using Malmquist index model to analyze the temporal and spatial evolution trend of total factor utilization efficiency of water resources in grain production in China. The main results are as follows: the grain water use efficiency in most provinces of China has been on the rise during the past ten years, and technical progress is the key factor affecting water use efficiency; more areas are at the stage of decreasing returns to scale for grain production, and about half of the 31 provinces have redundant water input, which means that the related areas should reduce their input scale of water resources for grain production; in view of regional distribution characteristics, China′s grain water utilization efficiency is correlated with economic level and geographic distribution, and has negative correlation with the abundance of water resources. In conclusion, Chinese government should invest more money in irrigation facilities and techniques for grain production to improve the water utilization efficiency. Meanwhile the grain production pattern should be optimized among different provinces by flexibly adjusting suitable measures to local conditions.