中国农业全要素生产率的动态演进及其影响因素分析

ANALYSIS ON THE DYNANIC EVOLUTION AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF AGRICULTURAL TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN CHINA

关键词:  农业全要素生产率技术进步技术效率SBM Global Malmqusit生产率指数Kernel核密度估计

Key words:  agricultural total factor productivity  technological progress  technical efficiency  SBM Global Malmqusit productivity index  kernel density estimation

摘要:

［目的］通过测算中国农业全要素生产率，揭示其动态演进趋势及影响因素，从而为推动我国农业供给侧结构性改革，实现农业现代化提供科学的决策依据。［方法］文章使用SBM Global Malmqusit生产率指数法测算了中国农业全要素生产率，在此基础上利用Kernel核密度估计方法刻画了中国农业TFP增长的动态演进，并通过建立面板数据模型对影响中国农业TFP增长的诸多因素进行了分析。［结果］中国农业全要素生产率增长的主要源泉是技术进步，而技术效率的下降是阻碍其增长的主要原因； 核密度估计表明各省份之间的农业相对全要素生产率水平差距不断扩大，技术效率普遍恶化，而技术进步增长速度显著； 农业金融发展水平、工业化水平、农业科技水平对中国农业TFP都产生了显著的促进作用，而农业产业结构调整、对外开放水平对中国农业TFP则产生了阻碍作用，农村人力资本则对农业TFP产生的正效应不显著。［结论］提高农业全要素生产率，实现农业现代化.各省份应加强农业科技创新，深化农业科技体制改革，完善农村金融服务体系，推动工业化和农业现代化深度融合，培育新型职业农民等措施。

Abstract:

By measuring agricultural total factor productivity in China, revealing its dynamic evolution trend and influencing factors, it can provide scientific decision making basis for promoting the structural reform of agricultural supply side and realizing agricultural modernization. This paper used the SBM Global Malmqusit productivity index method to calculate the agricultural total factor productivity in China, on the basis of which the kernel density estimation method was used to depict the dynamic evolution of agricultural TFP growth in China, and influence factors of agricultural TFP growth in China was analyzed through the establishment of panel data model. The results showed that the main source of TFP growth in China was technological progress, the decline in technical efficiency was the main reason to hinder its growth; The kernel density estimation showed that the gap among the provinces in the relative total factor productivity levels was widening, the technical efficiency was generally deteriorating, and the technological progress was increasing remarkably. The level of agricultural finance development, the level of industrialization and the level of agricultural science and technology had played a significant role in promoting agricultural TFP in China, while the adjustment of agricultural industry structure and the level of opening up had hindered the agricultural TFP in China, and the rural human capital had not had a significant positive effect on agricultural TFP. In order to improve agricultural TFP and realize agricultural modernization, each province should strengthen agricultural science and technology innovation, deepen agricultural science and technology system reform, improve rural financial service system, promote industrialization and agricultural modernization deep integration, cultivate new professional farmers and other measures.