市场价格冲击下中国小宗农产品国际竞争力及出口影响因素研究*——以大蒜产品为例

STUDY ON THE INTERNATIONAL COMPETITIVENESS AND EXPORT INFLUENCING FACTORS OF SMALL SCALE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN CHINA UNDER THE IMPACT OF MARKET PRICE*——THE CASE OF GARLIC

关键词:  小宗农产品国际竞争力出口贸易影响因素 VAR模型

Key words:  small scale agricultural products  international competitiveness  export trade  influencing factors  VAR model

摘要:

［目的］为认清当前中国小宗农产品国际贸易形势，探明国内市场价格暴涨暴跌现象对其出口的影响程度。［方法］首先，在梳理中国大蒜出口贸易现状的基础上，利用2001—2017年中国、阿根廷、西班牙、墨西哥等16个国家的大蒜产品进出口数据，分别对大蒜国际市场占有率、贸易竞争力指数以及出口价格比等指标作出估算和对比分析，从而揭示中国大蒜产品的国际竞争力水平以及其在出口贸易中的作用； 其次，利用VAR模型对2010年1月至2017年11月中国大蒜市场价格与出口数据之间的相互关系进行实证检验。［结果］（1）中国大蒜产品国际竞争整体水平较强，但比较优势和潜在贸易竞争水平较低，大蒜出口质量和附加值有待进一步提高； （2）大蒜国内市场价格对国际市场价格和出口量具有显著影响，即国内大蒜价格下降促使大蒜贸易活动向国际市场转移，并带来出口贸易总量的上升和国际市场价格的逐渐降低。［结论］应从加强标准化和规模化生产、促进深加工技术推广、完善农产品市场信息发布平台及实施多元化出口战略等方面，提升小宗农产品出口对市场价格风险的防御能力。

Abstract:

In order to recognize the current situation of international trade in China′s small scale agricultural products, and to understand the extent of the impact of the soaring prices in the domestic market prices on its exports. This study took garlic products as an example. On the basis of summarizing the current situation of garlic production and export trade in China, it calculated the international market share, trade competitiveness index and other indicators of garlic by using garlic market price and export data of 16 countries including China, Argentina, Spain and Mexico from 2001 to 2017, in order to reveal the international competitiveness level and its role in the export trade of garlic in China. At the same time, using garlic market price and export data of 16 countries including China, Argentina, Spain and Mexico from January 2010 to November 2017, the influencing factors of garlic export trade in China were tested through the VAR model. The research shows that: (1) The overall level of international competition of Chinese garlic products is strong, but the comparative advantage and potential trade competition level are low, the quality and added value of garlic need to be further improved; (2) The domestic market price of garlic has a significant impact on international market price and export volume, that is, the decline of domestic garlic price promotes the transfer of garlic trade activities to the international market and brings about export trade. And it also leads to the increase of the total volume of trade and the gradual decrease of international market prices. We should strengthen standardization and large scale production, promote the extension of deep processing technology, improve the platform of information release of agricultural products market and implement diversified export strategy, so as to enhance the defensive ability of small scale agricultural products export to market price risk.