价格支持政策对粮食种植面积的影响机理分析*——以小麦省级面板数据为例

ANALYSIS ON THE INFLUENCE MECHANISM OF PRICE SUPPORT POLICIES ON GRAIN PLANTING AREA IN CHINA*——BASED ON WHEAT PROVINCIAL LEVEL PANEL DATA

关键词:  价格支持政策播种面积影响机理价格预期双向固定效应模型

Key words:  price support policies  planting area  influence mechanism  price expectation  bi directional fixed effect model

摘要:

［目的］价格是影响农民生产决策和提高农民种粮收入的关键因素，价格支持政策是促进粮食生产稳定发展的最有效措施之一，通过价格支持政策对种植面积影响机理的理论和实证分析，为政策效果评价及政策调整提供参考和借鉴。［方法］基于理论框架的构建，采用双向固定效应模型并借助1998—2016年全国15个小麦主产省的相关数据，实证分析了价格支持政策对小麦播种面积的影响及其作用机制。［结果］价格支持政策能够通过提高农户对价格的预期增加小麦的种植面积； 最低收购价政策对面积增加的政策效应强于之前实施的保护价政策，且在政策执行区预期价格提高带来的面积增加效应显著大于非执行区； 种植习惯对小麦种植面积的影响最大，价格因素是农户生产决策的关键因素之一。［结论］价格政策可以作为种植结构调整的重要手段，价格调整应该兼顾农民预期价格的变化，加快构建多元的政策支持体系，采取诸如保险、直补、科研等多种措施，提高我国小麦产业竞争力。

Abstract:

Price is the key factor that affects farmers′ production decision and raises their income from grain planting. Price support policy is one of the most effective measures to promote the steady development of grain production. The theoretical and empirical analysis of the influence mechanism of price support policy on grain planting area can provide a reference for price support policy effect evaluation and price policy adjustment. Based on the construction of the theoretical framework, this study used the bi directional fixed effect model to analyze the effect of price support policy on the wheat planting area and its influence mechanism by combining the provincial panel data of 15 wheat producing provinces from 1998 to 2016 in China. The result showed that the price support policy could increase the planting area of wheat by raising the farmers′ price expectation; the policy effect of the minimum purchase price on enhancing the wheat planting area was stronger than the previous protection price policy, and the effect of increasing the wheat planting area by raising expected price in the policy executive area was significantly greater than that in the non policy executive area. The planting custom had the greatest impact on the wheat planting area in all influncing factors involved in the study, and the price was one of the key factors for famers to make production decisions. Price support policy could be used as an important means to adjust the planting structure, and the adjustment of policy price should take into account changes in farmers′ price expectation. It should accelerate the establishment of a diversified policy support system and take various measures such as insurance, direct subsidies and scientific research and other measures to improve the competitiveness of wheat industry in China.